http://www.eurasianet.net/departments/insight/articles/pp060205.shtml
Friday, June 3, 2005
EURASIA INSIGHT
AFGHANISTAN: IS RECONCILIATION WITH THE NEO-TALIBAN WORKING?
Amin Tarzi 6/02/05
A EurasiaNet Partner Post from RFE/RL
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The latest surge of violence associated and often claimed by the
neo-Taliban brings into question Afghan President Hamid
Karzai’s
reconciliation policy with members of the ousted regime. However, the
incidents, including the deadly suicide attack inside a mosque in the
southern Afghan city of Kandahar on June 1, may involve more actors
than the resurgent elements from the Taliban regime, or the
neo-Taliban, and, as such, can be a destabilizing factor in
Afghanistan’s future.
THE RECONCILIATION POLICY
In a little-noticed speech before a gathering of the ulema in Kabul in
April 2003, Karzai said that a "clear line" has to be drawn between
"the ordinary Taliban who are real and honest sons of this country"
and those "who still use the Taliban cover to disturb peace and
security in the country." No one has "the right to harass/persecute
any one under the name of Talib/Taliban anymore," Karzai emphasized
(see "RFE/RL Afghanistan Report," July 3, 2003).
In some senses, Karzai speech was an announcement, albeit not formally
at the time, of the launch of his reconciliation policy designed to
weaken the resolve of the neo-Taliban by breaking their ranks into
good and bad Talibs. Moreover, at the time Karzai -- who was leading a
transitional administration in which he was not the dominant force --
needed the backing of his co-ethnic Pashtuns who were perceived to be
-- or were actually -- marginalized from the Afghan political scene
since the demise of the mostly-Pashtun Taliban regime in December
2001.
The reconciliation policy, more articulated by Karzai since April
2003, essentially maintains that other than between 100 to 150 former
members of the Taliban regime are known to have committed crimes
against the Afghan people; all others, whether dormant or active
within the ranks of the neo-Taliban, can begin living as normal
citizens of Afghanistan by denouncing violence and renouncing their
opposition to the central Afghan government.
The list of the unpardonable former Taliban members has never been
made public by Karzai despite requests for such an action by the
Afghan media and politicians. Moreover, comments made in May by
Sebghatullah Mojaddedi -- which were initially supported by Karzai --
has changed the issue of who cannot be pardoned into a contentious
political problem. As the head of the Independent National Commission
for Peace in Afghanistan, an organ established to facilitate the
reconciliation process with the former Taliban members, Mojaddedi
announced that the amnesty offer from Karzai’s government
extended to
all Taliban leaders, including the regime’s former head, Mullah
Mohammad Omar (see "RFE/RL Afghanistan Report," May 17, 2005). Both
Mojaddedi and Karzai have since backed off of those statements, but
distrust has increased and the door of misuse of the reconciliation
policy has opened wider.
UPSURGE IN VIOLENCE
In line with the expectations of Afghan authorities and U.S.-led
coalition forces, disruptive activities and terrorist acts either
committed by or in the name of the neo-Taliban and their allies has
increased since the weather improved in southern and eastern
Afghanistan. In April, U.S. Major General Eric Olson said that there
"has been an increase in Taliban and enemy activity in the spring
[compared to the winter months]. And we anticipate that the enemy has
the intention of trying to raise the level of activity this spring."
However, Olson predicted that these activities would lack cohesion and
fade in traditional neo-Taliban strongholds (see "RFE/RL Afghanistan
Report," March 11, 2005).
While from a purely military perspective -- often no more than
sporadic gun battles and launching of small rockets -- engagements
between the neo-Taliban and the coalition forces and their Afghan
National Army allies have not shown any significant cohesion or an
increase that has not been expected, acts of terror have become more
organized and, indeed, deadlier.
The well-planned murder of Mawlawi Abdullah Fayyaz, head of the
Council of Ulema of Kandahar on May 29 and an ardent opponent of the
neo-Taliban, and the suicide blast inside a Kandahar mosque on June 1
which claimed at least 21 lives, are gruesome illustrations of the
increase in terror activities in Afghanistan.
DILEMMA FACING KABUL
Following Fayyaz’s murder, the office of Karzai’s
spokesman issued a
statement in which the Afghan president strongly condemned the murder
of the cleric, adding that Fayyaz was assassinated by "the enemies of
Afghanistan’s peace and prosperity," without mentioning the
neo-Taliban by name.
Soon after Fayyaz’s assassination, Mufti Latifullah Hakimi, a
spokesman for the neo-Taliban, claimed responsibility for the act,
calling Fayyaz a supporter of the "Americans, [who] preached against
an Islamic way of life and intended to lead people away from the path
of righteousness."
On May 31, Karzai responding to Fayyaz’s assassination and
said that
it "is clear that the people who call themselves Taliban and act under
the name of Taliban -- whether they are Taliban’s
representatives or
not -- but it is clear that they are enemies of Afghanistan," Radio
Afghanistan reported. Indirectly in support of his reconciliation
policies, Karzai called on all of those who are "in the ranks of the
Taliban, and [are] an Afghan, and belong to this soil," as his
"national and religious duty" he should act against those people who
kill Afghans and their religious scholars. "They should take revenge
on them and push them out of this country and prove that they are
Afghans and they do not allow foreigners in the country," Karzai
added, in an attempt to portray the killers of Fayyaz as non-Afghans.
In a statement, the Afghan Interior Ministry linked the suicide blast
on June 1, which occurred during a special funeral prayer for Fayyaz
and claimed the life of Kabul’s security chief General Akram
Khakrezwal, to Fayyaz’s murder. However, according to Afghan
Interior
Minister Ali Ahmad Jalali, the suicide bomber was not an Afghan, and
was "an enemy of Islam" and an "enemy of peace and stability in
Afghanistan" -- in what have recently become the standard official
Afghan terms for what once was referred to as the Taliban.
Referring to Fayyaz’s murder, the June 1 statement refrains
from
mentioning the Taliban by name, referring to those who carried out the
assassination simply as "gunmen."
Neo-Taliban spokesman Hakimi on June 1 contacted the Peshawar-based
Afghan Islamic Press, saying that the bombing "shouldn’t have
occurred" and "strongly" condemning the act. While Pakistani
journalist and Taliban expert Rahimullah Yusofzai told Dubai-based Geo
TV on June 1 that the militia has claimed responsibility for the
suicide bombing. In "my view, the Taliban was looking for this
opportunity. It believed that important people would visit this mosque
to offer prayer for" Fayyaz, Yusofzai told the station. There are
reports that two of Karzai’s brothers were due to arrive to
the mosque
later.
Whether the neo-Taliban or a splinter group within their ranks carried
out the mosque bombing, the incident has opened a new chapter of
violence in Afghanistan, in which mosques are no longer considered
sanctuaries safe from violence. Moreover, with the killing of Fayyaz
and the possible implications of the neo-Taliban in the mosque
bombing, the currency of Karzai’s reconciliation policy
towards the
militia becomes more tenuous. And the tensions created between Karzai
and some within his own government regarding his Taliban policy and
between the president and some of the opposition parties might lead to
a radicalization ahead of the elections for the lower house of the
Afghan Parliament and provincial councils; that could, in turn, allow
the reconciliation issue to be brought into the forefront of the
political debate in the country with dire consequences for national
unity of Afghanistan and leaving more opportunities for foreign hands
to destabilize the country.
Editor�s Note: Amin Tarzi is the Afghanistan analyst for RFE/RL
Online
and the editor of the "RFE/RL Afghanistan Report."
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