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http://www.eurasianet.net/departments/insight/articles/pp060305.shtml

EURASIA INSIGHT

UZBEKISTAN: BUSH ALLIES SEEK HARSHER US TREATMENT OF KARIMOV
Andrew Tully 6/03/05
A EurasiaNet Partner Post from RFE/RL

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A number of Bush supporters who once welcomed US military ties with
Uzbekistan now say it is time to reassess those relations.

One is Ariel Cohen, an analyst with the Heritage Foundation, a private
policy center in Washington. Cohen wrote recently in "The Washington
Times" that Karimov's authoritarian rule only emboldens radical
opponents who would turn Uzbekistan into what he calls a "militarized
Muslim state: a caliphate."

Another is William Kristol, the editor of "The Weekly Standard," a
policy magazine that often reflects the thinking of the Bush
administration. In the publication, Kristol -- with Stephen Schwartz
-- recently wrote an article urging Bush to re-assess U.S. ties with
Karimov's government.

In their conclusion, Kristol and Schwartz write that the
administration must be prepared to consider what they call the
"consequences for US aid and support for the regime." But in an
interview with RFE/RL, Schwartz insisted that this does not mean
breaking relations.

Instead, Schwartz said, it's time for the Bush administration to tell
Karimov that he's now regarded as being no different from leaders in
other former communist countries who have been rejected by their
people -- including former Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich,
former Kyrgyz President Askar Akaev, and former Georgian President
Eduard Shevardnadze.

"If he [Karimov] doesn't want to understand this, we're going to have
to make him understand this," Schwartz said. "I frankly think that
with the war in Afghanistan essentially over, there's no reason to
maintain any base in Uzbekistan and they [the United States] should
remove the base. I think they [the United States] should cut off any
military or police training to Uzbek troops since we now have to face
the scandalous fact that the troops in the Andijon incident apparently
were trained in the United States."

Further, Schwartz said, the Bush administration should begin shifting
its attention to Uzbekistan's much larger neighbor, Kazakhstan, as an
ally in Central Asia. He called President Nursulatan Nazarbaev "a
dictator." But he added that Kazakhstan also has a free press and a
thriving civil society.

Schwartz said the overall US policy decisions -- on Uzbekistan, at
least -- are made not in the State Department, but in the Pentagon.
And he said he understands Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is
unhappy with the situation in Uzbekistan.

Rumsfeld's dismay, Schwartz said, comes not only from the violence in
Andijon, but goes back to the Orange Revolution in Ukraine in
December. He said Andijon merely confirmed the administration's
concerns about the quality of Karimov's rule and brought the problems
in Uzbekistan to the attention of the wider public.

Schwartz said that since the change in Ukraine, the Bush
administration has become adamant that it can no longer regard all
postcommunist governments as representative of their peoples.

"The bottom line [the point] here is that the Bush administration,
after Ukraine, is clearly not going to take the position that
Uzbekistan is somehow different from Georgia, Ukraine, and Belarus --
and Russia itself," Schwartz said.

But Marina Ottaway of the Rule of Law Program at the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, another Washington think tank, said
there is little evidence that the Bush administration is prepared to
withdraw its troops from Uzbekistan.

After all, Ottaway told RFE/RL, the United States needs that base more
than Uzbekistan needs to provide it. And its location is based on
geographical -- not ideological -- concerns.

"We [the United States] put that base there because we thought we
needed it. We did not put that base there because he [Karimov] was a
nice guy," Ottaway said. "The lack of democracy in [Uzbekistan] is not
going to change the Pentagon's calculus on whether or not that base is
needed. It seems to me extremely unlikely that the US government would
implement a policy of that sort as long as it sees a military reason
to have a base in Uzbekistan."

Besides, Ottaway said, Uzbekistan is part of a longstanding Rumsfeld
strategy that so far has overridden the more diplomatic approaches of
the State Department.

"The Pentagon certainly has a different set of concerns than the
people [elsewhere in the Bush administration] who are talking about
promoting new revolutions in these countries," Ottaway said. "From the
beginning, Rumsfeld has been talking about moving American bases
further east -- closing some of the bases in Europe and moving further
east. So certainly Uzbekistan is part of that strategy."

Ottaway said there is more evidence that Bush will maintain the status
quo. She noted that in 2004, the State Department suspended $18
million in aid to Uzbekistan because of Tashkent's poor human rights
record. But soon the Pentagon restored that money -- and even added $3
million to the total -- citing Karimov's cooperation with the US
military.

Editor�s Note: Washington correspondent Andrew F. Tully has more
than
three decades' experience in journalism. He has worked as a reporter
and an editor in both New York and Washington for several news
organizations, primarily the Associated Press and United Press
International, where he rose to the position of foreign editor in





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