"...hopeful talk of significant troop reductions by year's end - that began circulating at Pentagon briefings shortly after the successful Jan. 30 elections - has disappeared."
http://www.armytimes.com/print.php?f=1-292925-895732.php June 06, 2005 Iraq's politically savvy insurgency proves its staying power By John Yaukey Gannett News Service The insurgent stronghold of Fallujah fell in November. The parliamentary elections Jan. 30 came and went. Iraq's new elected government took power in April. Each was touted as a major victory against Iraq's insurgents. And yet Iraqi forces, backed by U.S. troops, are now conducting the largest offensive in Iraq since Baghdad fell two years ago. The mission is to root out what has become an insurgency with proven staying power and evolving sophistication especially capable of exploiting political vulnerabilities. May saw a bump in U.S. casualties — the highest since January — as insurgents ramped up a car bombing campaign largely responsible for killing 79 U.S. troops and hundreds of Iraqis. So far, more than 1,600 U.S. forces have been killed in Iraq, and American taxpayers have spent more than $190 billion - with no end in sight. Experts say the insurgents will get a major opportunity at creating political chaos this summer and fall as Iraq's recently assembled constitutional committee attempts to draft the document that will guide Iraq to a second round of elections at year's end. "The real struggle for power in Iraq is going to be over the constitution," said David Phillips, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of "Power Sharing in Iraq." It will define the country's future for decades to come." The troops' view For the 138,000 American troops in Iraq, the rebounding insurgency and the looming constitutional drama raises once again the question of how much longer the campaign will last as some units are facing third tours of duty. But then, experts say, that's the question the insurgents want lingering. "The insurgents are trying to wage a protracted fight, because they know they can't win a short conflict," said Marine Corps Col. Thomas Hammes, author of an acclaimed book on modern insurgency warfare titled "The Sling and the Stone." "So that raises the question: Can we sustain the force long enough for our side to win?" President Bush and Pentagon officials have said they're determined to make sure Iraqis can secure their own country before U.S. troops leave. That might explain why hopeful talk of significant troop reductions by year's end - that began circulating at Pentagon briefings shortly after the successful Jan. 30 elections - has disappeared. Vice President Dick Cheney recently predicted on CNN that fighting in Iraq should end before the administration leaves in 2009. If U.S. forces leave that year, the war will have lasted six years. Dangerous summer Ever since the transfer of sovereignty from American civil authorities to the Iraqis on June 28, the insurgents have struck especially hard at political targets. The delay in forming the interim government in the late spring gave the insurgents the opening for the current wave of violence that has lasted weeks. For the upcoming constitutional process to succeed, Iraq's majority ruling Shiites must negotiate power sharing with the Sunni Arabs, now fueling much of the insurgency, and the Kurds who want to retain their autonomy. Not yet fully under way, the constitutional process could drag on for nine months if all the time-extension provisions are enacted. If the 101-member constitutional committee cannot produce a draft by August, it can seek a six-month extension. But American commanders clearly would prefer the Iraqis complete the task sooner rather than later. The sooner the post-constitutional elections can be held, the sooner the Sunnis, who stayed out of January's elections, can re-enter the political process with the hopeful result of a reduction in violence. If the constitutional process bogs down in debate, or worse, "it will serve as great stage on which to launch sectarian violence," said Thomas Sanderson, with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld recently said he was encouraged by the political process so far. "The (Shiites) are reaching out to the Sunnis and allowing them to come into the constitutional drafting process in a very constructive and healthy way," Rumsfeld said. "So there's an awful lot good that's happening in that country." Initially, only one member of the 55-member constitutional committee was a Sunni, but the committee was expanded so 18 of the now 101 members are Sunnis. That said, noted Iraq war analyst Anthony Cordesman cautioned against trying to read too much into the early signs of anything in an insurgency. "Insurgencies involve patterns that can play out over years and sometimes decades," Cordesman writes in the early draft of his book, "Iraq's Evolving Insurgency." "It is easy to claim trends towards security, but generally far more difficult to make them valid or real." ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> DonorsChoose. A simple way to provide underprivileged children resources often lacking in public schools. Fund a student project in NYC/NC today! http://us.click.yahoo.com/EHLuJD/.WnJAA/cUmLAA/TySplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? 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