July 21, 2005 -- THE NEW YORK PRESS ON "The Big One" by Aaron Naparstek:
"Experts say it's only a matter of time before a major hurricane strikes New York City.... "'Try to tell someone in Sheepshead Bay that they have to evacuate immediately because within the next 24 hours they'll have 30 feet of storm surge on their neighborhood,' says Mike Lee [Director of Watch Command, NYC Office of Emergency Management], before pausing to let you think about three stories of ocean water roiling through your own neighborhood. "They'll laugh at you-absolutely laugh at you,".... "...the strong consensus is that the metropolitan region is due for a big one. Overdue, in fact. The 1938 Long Island Express, a borderline category-4 hurricane that plowed into West Hampton, causing widespread death and devastation across New York, New Jersey and New England, was the last major hurricane to hit the region. Statistically speaking, 'a storm of that magnitude may repeat every 70 to 80 years or so,' Lee says. 'So, do the math. Whether it happens this year, next year, or in five years, it's going to happen.'.... "Though it is rare for big hurricanes to hit the New York metropolitan region, there are a variety of 'oceanographic, demographic and geologic characteristics that greatly amplify any hurricane' that comes our way, according to Nicholas Coch, a professor of coastal geology at Queens College. In many ways, Coch explains, 'The New York City area is the worst possible place for a hurricane to make a landfall.'.... "New York's first vulnerability is psychological....The vast majority of the city's eight million inhabitants simply have no idea that a hurricane can happen here. 'We live in a complacent coastal city,' Lee says. 'A lot of people don't even think that there are beaches here,' never mind 478 miles of coastline. In fact, New York City is behind only Miami and New Orleans on the list of U.S. cities most likely to suffer a major hurricane disaster.... "New York's second vulnerability is demographic....At the time of the 1938 storm, Long Island wasn't a densely populated suburban sprawl; it was a rural home for oyster fishermen, potato farmers and wealthy industrialists. The same storm today would wreak incredible havoc. AIR Worldwide Corporation estimates $11.6 billion in New York losses alone. More than 20 million people live in the greater metropolitan region. Many live on coastal land, reclaimed swamp and barrier islands. Much of Lower Manhattan is built on landfill.... "New York City's biggest vulnerability is the most unyielding-geology. The New York bight is the right angle formed by Long Island and New Jersey with the city tucked into its apex. 'Hurricanes do not like right angles,' Lee says. '[They allow] water to accumulate and pile up.' Couple this with the fact that New York resides on a very shallow continental shelf, and as a big storm pushes north, New York Harbor 'acts as a funnel.' As storm surge forces its way into the harbor and up the rivers, it has nowhere to go but onto land. New York City, it turns out, has some of the highest storm-surge values in the country. 'When we see a category-3 storm making landfall in Florida, it may only have a 12-, 13-foot storm surge,' Lee says. 'For us here, a category-1 storm can give us 12 feet of storm surge.'.... "If a storm like the Long Island Express makes a direct hit on the city, everything below Broome Street will be inundated, some parts under as much as 20 and 30 feet of water. Chelsea and Greenwich Village are completely flooded, with the Hudson spilling over all the way to 7th Avenue. Likewise, the East River and East Village become one, with ocean water surging all the way to 1st Avenue. If you haven't evacuated before the storm, forget it. During the storm, Manhattan's east- and west-side highways vanish. Tunnels and bridges become unusable....In the event of a direct hit by a category-3 hurricane, surge maps show that the Holland and Battery Tunnels will be completely filled with sea water, with many subway and railroad tunnels severely flooded as well. The runways of LaGuardia and JFK airports will get flooded by 18.1 and 31.2 feet of water, respectively. "Then there are the winds. We do know that hurricane wind speeds multiply at higher altitudes. At 350 feet, the height of high-rise buildings on the Battery and the towers of the George Washington Bridge, hurricane winds will be twice as fast as they are on the ground. Newer, glass-skinned towers are not likely to do well in those conditions.... "Hog Island: New York City's version of Atlantis....Hog Island became a sort of 1890s version of the Hamptons....That all ended on the night of August 23, 1893, when a terrifying category-2 hurricane rolled up from Norfolk, Virginia, and made landfall on what is now JFK airport....In Brooklyn...'the water in the street was up to a man's waist,' and residents used ladders to get in and out of their houses....The East River rose 'until it swept over the sea wall in the Astoria district and submerged the Boulevard.' At Coney Island, 30-foot waves swept 200 yards inland, destroying nearly every man-made structure in its path and wrecking the elevated railroad. 'Hog Island largely disappeared that night," Coch says. "As far as I know, it is the only incidence of the removal of an entire island by a hurricane.'..." -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? 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