Subject: [osint] Terror Top Threat for Ankara After Attacks

"The increased attacks against military and civilian targets � by
separatist Kurdish rebels in Turkey and July�s London and Egyptian
bombings by suspected Islamic militants � strengthen Turkish intentions to
list asymmetrical risks as a top threat in a state security paper Turkey�s
government and military leaders will conclude soon."


http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=1000756&C=europe

Posted 08/01/05 19:38    
Terror Top Threat for Ankara After Attacks By BURAK EGE BEKDIL And UMIT
ENGINSOY, ANKARA

A recent wave of terror attacks in Turkey and elsewhere bolsters Turkish
intentions to make asymmetrical threats the focal point of an emerging
security white paper, according to Turkish defense and security officials.

The increased attacks against military and civilian targets � by
separatist Kurdish rebels in Turkey and July�s London and Egyptian
bombings by suspected Islamic militants � strengthen Turkish intentions to
list asymmetrical risks as a top threat in a state security paper Turkey�s
government and military leaders will conclude soon.

The paper, which often covers three to four prospective years, is the key
state document that details foreign and domestic security threats and
therefore shapes the country�s major procurement decisions

�What has been happening in Turkey and elsewhere is the best proof that
asymmetrical threat is the biggest security risk,� a top Turkish security
official said. �This inevitably will be reflected in the new threat
paper.�

The National Security Council, or Milli Guvenlik Kurulu (MGK), the
country�s top decision-making body, will convene at the end of August to
shape the new National Security Political Paper. Turkish leaders are
expected to finalize the paper in the next few months. MGK brings together
President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Army Gen.
Hilmi Ozkok, chief of the Turkish General Staff, and leading cabinet
ministers and top generals.

After MGK�s next scheduled meeting in late August, the paper will go to
Erdogan�s desk for final revisions and approval.

The Kurdistan Workers� Party (PKK) and its splinter groups, which Turkey,
the United States and the European Union consider terrorists, have in recent
months increased mostly remote-controlled mine attacks against military
targets as well as bomb attacks against civilians in holiday resorts,
killing more than 120 people in the past year.

Between 1984 and 1999, nearly 40,000 people were killed in the conflict
between the PKK and Turkey. The fighting subsided in 1999 as Turkey captured
PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan. But the PKK has resumed attacks since it
canceled its unilateral cease-fire in June 2004. In a change of tactics, the
PKK is increasingly using improvised explosive devices like those employed
by Iraqi insurgents.

Separately, bombings in London and Sharm al-Sheik, Egypt, in July have
killed nearly 150, and the responsibility for both waves of attacks was
claimed by different Islamic groups. An al-Qaida-related group killed more
than 70 people in four bombings in Istanbul in November 2003.

�In view of recent terror attacks, it will be more realistic to substitute
[Turkey�s] conventional terror concept, which is based on military
confrontation with hostile countries,� with an approach that emphasizes
the threat of groups like al-Qaida, said the same security official.

Last year, Turkey�s military leaders indicated they might scrap
conventional threat perceptions, saying the real risk was terror and Islamic
fundamentalism.

Anti-terror Coordination

A military official said the new paper will likely pave the way for a fresh,
comprehensive anti-terror fight, which could include creation of a special
anti-terror coordination body, most likely reporting to the prime
minister�s office. Turkish lawmakers also are mulling revisions in the
country�s anti-terror laws.

According to Reha Tartici, director for the Istanbul-based research house
Consensus, the new threat document also will affect some of Turkey�s
procurement decisions.

�In a way, it will be a guideline for a future shift to smart weaponry
instead of conventional arms,� Tartici said. �There already are signs
for that. The newly relaunched satellite program is a good example.�

A month and a half before a deadline to respond to a call from Ankara for
the critical satellite military program, scores of local and international
manufacturers expressed their intention to bid for the contract.

Turkey�s government had earmarked an initial $138 million for the
country�s space program and asked local and international manufacturers to
respond to a request for information (RfI), which procurement officials
often view as an expression of intention to bid for a contract. But a
procurement official familiar with the program said the eventual cost may
exceed $250 million.

As of July 7, according to Turkey�s defense procurement office, the
Undersecretariat for Defense Industries, or Savunma Sanayi Mustesarligi, 41
local and foreign manufacturers had responded to the RfI. The deadline to
respond to the RfI is Aug. 26.

The program was shelved in 2001 in response to a punishing financial crisis
that slashed Turkey�s national income by one-third and prompted the
military command to suspend several contracts worth nearly $20 billion.

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