Striking the Right Note With China Message-ID: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> User-Agent: eGroups-EW/0.82 X-Mailer: Yahoo Groups Message Poster X-Originating-IP: 66.94.237.55 X-eGroups-Msg-Info: 1:12:0:0 X-Yahoo-Post-IP: 68.98.145.15 From: "David Bier" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> X-Yahoo-Profile: bafsllc Sender: osint@yahoogroups.com MIME-Version: 1.0 Mailing-List: list osint@yahoogroups.com; contact [EMAIL PROTECTED] Delivered-To: mailing list osint@yahoogroups.com List-Id: <osint.yahoogroups.com> Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Date: Tue, 16 Aug 2005 00:28:32 -0000 Subject: [osint] Reply-To: osint@yahoogroups.com Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
"...China could use nuclear weapons against the United States in a conflict over Taiwan. Given the potential cost of miscalculation over the Taiwan Strait, one might have expected a stiff riposte from Washington. None was forthcoming." http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=3D1035084&C=3Dcommentary Posted 08/15/05 14:57=20=20=09=20 Striking the Right Note With China By DAVID J. SMITH The dean of China=EF=BF=BDs prestigious National Defense University recentl= y remarked that China could use nuclear weapons against the United States in a conflict over Taiwan. Given the potential cost of miscalculation over the Taiwan Strait, one might have expected a stiff riposte from Washington. None was forthcoming. Next month, U.S. President George W. Bush will have an opportunity to set things straight when Chinese President Hu Jintao visits Washington. Maj. Gen. Zhu Chenghu dropped his bombshell at a July 14 gathering of Hong-Kong-based journalists, and it was first reported in the Financial Times. The Pentagon demurred to comment, while State Department spokesman Sean McCormack waited for the next daily briefing to =EF=BF=BDhope that these are not the views of the Chinese government.=EF= =BF=BD McCormack=EF=BF=BDs subdued response teed up Shen Guofang, his Chinese Fore= ign Ministry counterpart, to assure us that what Zhu =EF=BF=BDtalked about were just his personal views.=EF=BF=BD Within days, Zhu=EF=BF=BDs comments were overshadowed by the announcement that the People=EF=BF=BDs Bank of China wo= uld revalue the renminbi. Gaining action on China=EF=BF=BDs undervalued currency was a big victory fo= r Bush, but Washington is mistaken to let Zhu=EF=BF=BDs words pass so easily. It is unlikely that Zhu was just expressing personal views =EF=BF=BD Chines= e two-star generals do not do that. Moreover, Zhu spoke at an event organized by the Chinese government. =EF=BF=BDIf the Americans are determined to interfere,=EF=BF=BD said Zhu, = =EF=BF=BDwe will be determined to respond.=EF=BF=BD If Chinese territory, including ships and aircraft, were targeted, he said, =EF=BF=BDI think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons.=EF=BF=BD This, despite China=EF=BF=BDs official =EF=BF=BDno-first-use=EF=BF=BD polic= y on nuclear weapons, which, according to the Taipei Times, Zhu said the Chinese leadership is under internal pressure to change. If Zhu=EF=BF=BDs penchant for tough words had displeased his superiors, the= y have had ample time to reassign him to a road-building brigade in Xinjiang. Writing of Taiwan and possible U.S. intervention in 2000, then-Senior Col. Zhu said, =EF=BF=BDChina is a country that has certain abilities of launching strategic counterattack and the capacity of launching a long-distance strike.=EF=BF=BD His article appeared in People=EF=BF=BDs Liberation Daily, the official org= an of the People=EF=BF=BDs Liberation Army (PLA). The PLA has since promoted h= im. Nor is Zhu alone. In 1996, Gen. Xiong Guang Kai, now No. 2 in the PLA, argued that the United States would not come to Taiwan=EF=BF=BDs aid becaus= e China would =EF=BF=BDrain nuclear bombs on Los Angeles.=EF=BF=BD Drawing Line on Taiwan Zhu and Xiong may rankle Washington =EF=BF=BD probably even Beijing =EF=BF= =BD but their words reflect a certain logic that may not be at odds with Chinese doctrine. Should there be a move toward =EF=BF=BDTaiwan independenc= e,=EF=BF=BD says China=EF=BF=BDs 2004 defense white paper, =EF=BF=BDthe Chinese people = and armed forces will resolutely and thoroughly crush it at any cost.=EF=BF=BD In other words, a conflict over Taiwan is not one from which Beijing could backpedal. Since China cannot match American conventional power projection, U.S. involvement could lead it to consider nuclear weapons, forcing rethought or redefinition of the =EF=BF=BDno-first-use=EF= =BF=BD policy. Zhu may have afforded us a glimpse into an ongoing internal debate. None of this is to say that China wants war over Taiwan or confrontation with the United States. On the contrary, Zhu and Xiong are bolstering China=EF=BF=BDs deterrent posture in hopes of demoralizing Taiwan into submission and keeping the United States out of any cross-Strait hostilities. Should a conflict develop, Taipei and Washington must consider what Zhu and Xiong have said. Days after Zhu=EF=BF=BDs remarks, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) released its annual report on Chinese military power, documenting how Beijing is backing words with military hardware. The report notes significant growth in China=EF=BF=BDs short-range ballistic missile capability, with at least six brigades deployed across the Strait from Taiwan. Anti-access capabilities under development include =EF=BF=BDnaval mines, submarines, cruise missiles and special operations forces.=EF=BF=BD China a= lso is exploring use of =EF=BF=BDballistic missiles and special operations forc= es to strike ships or their ashore support infrastructure.=EF=BF=BD Should the= se trends continue, DoD concludes, =EF=BF=BDPLA capabilities could pose a thre= at to other modern militaries.=EF=BF=BD All of this underscores the imperative of maintaining our military edge. The PLA has no doubt noticed that the United States is maintaining the post-Cold War strategic deterrent force envisioned in the 2001 Nuclear Posture Review. It will closely follow every advance in naval warfare and ballistic and cruise missile defense. But military capabilities alone are insufficient. Declaratory policy is also an essential ingredient of deterrence because it conveys our will to use military capabilities, should the need arise. When Hu calls at the White House next month, Bush need not repeat his 2001 =EF=BF=BDwhatever it takes=EF=BF=BD statement to deliver a strong, cle= ar message. He should tell Hu that we want good relations with China. We support a negotiated, peaceful resolution of the cross-Strait dispute. Indeed, maintaining our credibility and geopolitical stature would prevent the United States from backing down in the face of anything less. David J. Smith is senior resident fellow at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, Arlington, Va.=20 ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~-->=20 <font face=3Darial size=3D-1><a href=3D"http://us.ard.yahoo.com/SIG=3D12hq8= msqn/M=3D362329.6886306.7839369.3040540/D=3Dgroups/S=3D1705323667:TM/Y=3DYA= HOO/EXP=3D1124159317/A=3D2894321/R=3D0/SIG=3D11dvsfulr/*http://youthnoise.c= om/page.php?page_id=3D1992 ">Fair play? Video games influencing politics. Click and talk back!</a>.</f= ont> --------------------------------------------------------------------~->=20 -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, discuss-o= [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: osint@yahoogroups.com Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. 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