"Japan is likely to experience a landslide within its party landscape after the election. But even if Koizumi's kamikaze attack works, he doesn't have much time left. His term in office as head of the LDP -- and as prime minister -- ends in September 2006."
DER SPIEGEL 33/2005 - August 15, 2005 URL: http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,370248,00.html Japan The Hour of Revenge By Wieland Wagner First he was fêted as a rock star, but now he's despised by his own party. By holding new elections, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi hopes to get rid of opponents to reform within his party and, in doing so, finally lead the world's second-largest industrialized nation out of its economic malaise. The coup could signal the end of a political era. Is the sun going down on Koizumi's premiership? In tough situations, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi likes to think about the kamikaze pilots who were brave enough to give their lives by crashing into enemy targets in World War II. Before taking office more than four years ago, he told the parliament that in those moments he tells himself: "Put yourself in the position of those pilots." Since last week, the Japanese have been experiencing what Koizumi meant by that. First the wavy-haired prime minister shocked the nation when he dissolved the lower house of parliament and called for new elections on Sept. 11. Members of parliament from his own Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) were the ones who brought down his postal service privatization reforms in the upper house. Koizumi has launched a purge against dissidents in his party -- essentially a coup from above. And it gets even more dramatic: Just as it celebrates its 50th anniversary, Koizumi has split the LDP, almost constantly the ruling party since 1955, dragging the world's second-largest industrialized nation into deep political uncertainty. The rest of the world is looking to East Asia with concern, since it needs Japan to offer leadership in the region right now. In the most recent six-nation talks in Beijing, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il once again refused to abandon his nuclear program. Tokyo's ties to its increasingly powerful rival, China, are at an all-time low, since the two countries normalized relations 33 years ago. But the most dangerous conflict of all is lurking off Japan's coasts, where the country and its neighbors are quarreling over islands and bodies of water presumed to hold oil and natural gas reserves. Politically confusing times would also be fatal for the economy. Despite signs of a recovery and a drop in unemployment to 4.2 percent, the Japanese are cutting back on consumer spending. Asia's former No. 1 nation is desperately trying to pull itself out of a deflationary spiral. Settling scores But since last week, Tokyo has been primarily concerned with itself, and life in the government section of town is as turbulent as in a kabuki theater. Despite all the commotion, it was a minor issue that triggered the Koizumi revolt. Granted, LDP rebels had brought down the prime minister's central project, the postal service reform. But instead of working out a compromise, Koizumi took the opportunity to embark on a campaign of revenge against his opponents within the party. In the wake of his decision, which the Japanese newspaper Gendai called nothing short of a "suicide bombing," the prime minister suddenly seems liberated from all the troublesome details of running the government. He's a little similar to his German counterpart, Gerhard Schröder, in this respect. But unlike the German chancellor, Koizumi doesn't have to point out the dangers posed by dissidents within his own ranks. Hated by many in the LDP, the reformist politician saved his skin by essentially campaigning against large sections of the party. Now the LDP is paying the price for having elected an outsider to the position of prime minister in spring 2001. But the party was struggling in the opinion polls at the time, and desperately needed a savior. The approach worked. Japan's 27th post-war prime minister, with his bold promises of reform, presented himself as a self-confident leader to the Japanese. Unlike his rather bland predecessors, "Jun-chan" vowed to lift the country out of the deep crisis it had slid into when its economic bubble burst in the early 1990s. The system of "Japan Inc." -- an odd mixture of socialism and market economy, complete with lifetime job guarantees and automatic promotions -- had long since become outdated as a result of globalization. The Japanese celebrated Koizumi like a rock star, buying key ring pendants embossed with his likeness and listening to a CD of Elvis Presley hits that the prime minister had compiled himself. But in voting for his LDP, voters also kept the opponents of reform in office, and they put the brakes on unchecked reforms, even showing little concern when the party leader threatened to destroy the LDP after they continued to oppose his reform platform. Shaking up Japanese politics Nevertheless, populist Koizumi struck a completely new, raw tone in Japanese politics. Instead of appointing cabinet ministers on the basis of consensus or following the suggestions of powerful party bosses, he brought outsiders into his government. Instead of playing golf with fellow party members, he spent his weekends listening to Wagner operas at home or watching Westerns. One of the prime minister's few confidantes was his older sister Nobuko, who was also his secretary. The outsider cold-bloodedly began forcing the country to abandon its sluggish group mentality. In return, his enemies multiplied within his consensus-loving party -- a pragmatic alliance of associations and professional groups, in which LDP bosses distribute tax money to their respective clientele and, in return, collect contributions (and, in some cases, bribes.) In reforming the postal service, Koizumi also planned to dry up his LDP opponents' sources of funding, and that's what led to the rupture within the party. The Japanese postal service, which holds deposits of savings and assets worth roughly US$3 trillion, is the world's largest banking and insurance organization. In addition, the country's roughly 400,000 postal workers serve as an important support contingent for the LDP. Koizumi argues that the government's withdrawal from the postal service is a condition of further reforms: a new pension system for the aging Japanese nation as well as a restructuring of its national debt. At more than US$6 trillion, Japan's national debt is higher on a per capita basis than that of any other leading industrialized country. But the prime minister and his party had long since given up fighting over Japan's future. Instead, LDP conspirators met in geisha bars near government offices to plot ways to repay "dictator" Koizumi for the humiliation they had suffered. The prime minister, for his part, was just waiting for the right opportunity to mow down his adversaries. But dissolving the lower house of parliament? "Not even Hitler would have come up with that idea," complains Shizuka Kamei, one of Koizumi's rivals. 37 LDP dissenters had already voted against the postal reform in the lower house. To repay them for their disloyalty, Koizumi has now deleted all reform opponents from the list of official LDP candidates in the current election campaign, claiming that the step was necessary to "destroy the old LDP." Suddenly Japanese politics are exciting again. Experts on TV talk shows have been weighing the various possible election scenarios: Will Koizumi's purged "new" LDP finally be forced to step down, or will the prime minister's coup force the nation to take his side? Koizumi has already won the first round in this political drama. According to opinion polls, his approval rating has shot up to almost 50 percent. But this still doesn't mean that the Japanese will also vote for the other members of his "new" LDP. The ruthlessness with which he is now dispatching so-called killer candidates into the election districts of former party friends could act like a boomerang. The opposition Democratic Party (DP) could ultimate benefit from the LDP's self-destruction. But when it comes to important reform issues, the DP's members are almost as much at odds with one another as the Liberal Democrats. Ultimately, Japan is likely to experience a landslide within its party landscape after the election. But even if Koizumi's kamikaze attack works, he doesn't have much time left. His term in office as head of the LDP -- and as prime minister -- ends in September 2006. But he is banking on the idea that the Japanese will see few alternatives to Koizumi. Indeed, he has been telling his fellow Japanese that if he loses the election, "then I will resign." The lonely prime minister thinks this is a potent threat. ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> <font face=arial size=-1><a href="http://us.ard.yahoo.com/SIG=12hq5qge2/M=362329.6886306.7839369.3040540/D=groups/S=1705323667:TM/Y=YAHOO/EXP=1124426396/A=2894321/R=0/SIG=11dvsfulr/*http://youthnoise.com/page.php?page_id=1992 ">Fair play? Video games influencing politics. Click and talk back!</a>.</font> --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: [email protected] Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. OSINT, as a part of The Intelligence Network, is making it available without profit to OSINT YahooGroups members who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information in their efforts to advance the understanding of intelligence and law enforcement organizations, their activities, methods, techniques, human rights, civil liberties, social justice and other intelligence related issues, for non-profit research and educational purposes only. We believe that this constitutes a 'fair use' of the copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Law. If you wish to use this copyrighted material for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use,' you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/osint/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
