"This situation gives Kurds unwarranted power over a state which they have seen as an enemy for many years but it also presents challenges and potential pitfalls the Kurds must negotiate wisely. As each potential partnership includes dangers as well as rewards."
http://www.kurdmedia.com/articles.asp?id=10954 Kurd's are Iraq's kingmakers yet again 12/24/2005 KurdishMedia.com - By Simko Azad As the results of the December 15th landmark Iraqi elections are collected it is becoming apparent that the United Iraq Alliance (UIA), a predominantly Shia slate which enjoys the backing of Iraq's top Shia cleric, the ayatollah Sistani, has again dominated the polls. Although official results have not been published it is now clear that the UIA has passed the 92 seat marker by a large margin, making it impossible for any coalition which does not include the UIA to gain the 182 seats necessary to appoint the next President and so begin the process of forming Iraq's new government. The Kurdistani alliance which gained 75 seats in the last elections appears to have come second again although with a lower count of seats in the 275 member council of representatives. While the former Prime Minister Iyad Allawis slate seems to have gained fewer seats than expected. The scene is now set for the wrangling and negotiations which have preceded the formation of all Iraq's government to date. With reports from Iraq indicating that Dr Allawi may attempt to form a "secular" coalition including all non-UIA candidates in an attempt to head off a new UIA dominated government. This coalition will necessarily involve the Kurds if it is to have any chance of success. This new "secular" coalition with Allawi as its head has no chance of forming a government even if joined by all of the non-UIA groupings in Iraq's often fractious and quarrelsome parliament if the current coalitions hold together, however it appears that Allawi is gambling on the fragmentation of the UIA in the complex negotiations which lie ahead, thereby giving him the magical 182 seats necessary to form a new government. This leaves the Kurds as "king makers" for the second time. Arbitrators between a Sunni-secular alliance and a Shia-religious one for the government of the worlds most watched state. However to date it still unclear which way the Kurdish alliance will turn in these negotiations, with conflicting reports indicating that the Kurds wish to continue there alliance with the UIA while other sources indicate that President Barzani of the Kurdistan region wishes to seek an alliance with Allawi's coalition. This situation gives Kurds unwarranted power over a state which they have seen as an enemy for many years but it also presents challenges and potential pitfalls the Kurds must negotiate wisely. As each potential partnership includes dangers as well as rewards. A renewal of the Kurd UIA alliance offers the Kurds the chance to continue there partnership in a grouping which has now ruled Iraq for a year, it also offers the advantage that some elements within the UIA which are as committed to federalism as the Kurd's themselves, may be strengthened. However the UIA to date has not followed the protocols which it agreed with the Kurds before the signing of the last coalition agreement between these groups and some Kurd's fear that the UIA may be an untrustworthy partner. The formation of an alliance with the Allawi led groups against the UIA offers the Kurds the opportunity to seek partnership with groups which are like themselves secular however the Sunni Arabs which will form the backbone of this alliance are virulently against the annexation of Kirkuk to Kurdistan as well as federalism in general, both of which are Kurdish bottom lines. It also opens Kurds to the prospect of losing out on any role in the government if anyone of the anti-UIA groupings breaks its pledges and joins a UIA led government, a likely occurrence in Iraq's politics which are often characterised by lucid loyalties and mercurial allegiances. Overall the future period holds many potential rewards for the long oppressed Kurd's of Iraq but it also offers potential setbacks and challenges which will require strong and determined leadership. ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> 1.2 million kids a year are victims of human trafficking. Stop slavery. http://us.click.yahoo.com/U6CDDD/izNLAA/cUmLAA/TySplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: osint@yahoogroups.com Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. 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