http://www.geostrategy-direct.com

U.S. updating earlier intelligence estimate on Iran nukes 

U.S. intelligence agencies are reassessing earlier reports on when
Iran will achieve nuclear weapons capability based on the resumption
of illicit enrichment activities last week. 
The current National Intelligence Assessment, a consensus view of U.S.
agencies, is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon until 2010 at
the earliest. 
 

A view of Natanz uranium enrichment facility 155 miles south of
Teheran, on March 30, 2005. Raheb Homavandi/Reuters 
 
However, outside specialists believe that Iran is only months or a
year away from having its first crude nuclear device, which is
expected to be modeled on the first U.S. atomic bomb. 
Iran's decision to remove the seals from the Natanz nuclear facility
where uranium enrichment work is being done could speed up Teheran's
development timetable. 

Teheran is seeking to perfect a cascade of centrifuges to spin uranium
hexafluoride gas (UF6) into highly enriched uranium for bombs. 
So far, Iran has processed some 80 tons of uranium ore into UF6. It
also is working on groups of 164 centrifuges as the first step toward
operating a 2,000-centrifuge cascade. 

U.S. officials say the latest enrichment activity resumption is the
clearest sign that Iran is intent on developing nuclear weapons and
not a peaceful nuclear program to produce electricity. 
The Iranian nuclear program is advanced. Once the centrifuges are
working, Teheran will be able to convert enough UH6 to produce four or
five bombs, according to government specialists. 






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