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DOSSIER: Osama Bin Laden Analysts fear hidden signals on Bin Laden tape Intelligence analysts cite the start of Bin Laden's statement: "Peace be upon those who follow guidance." Osama Bin Laden Affiliation: Al Qaida Age: 47 Whereabouts: Believed along Afghan-Pakistani border After a year of silence, Osama Bin Laden has issued a mild, even conciliatory, message to the world that has the U.S. intelligence community worried. The concern is that Bin Laden has embedded messages designed to order his operatives into immediate action. Intelligence analysts cite the start of Bin Laden's statement: "Peace be upon those who follow guidance." That greeting was used twice in Bin Laden messages in 2004. Each time, the message came after or before a major attack. Bin Laden's last previous audio message was in December 2004. His last video message was in October 2004, days before the U.S. presidential election. "We know that Al Qaida has been planning a major attack in the United States," one official said. "We also believe Al Qaida has established an infrastructure in North America. Therefore, when Bin Laden reappears after such a long absence, there must be a very good reason." The IntelCenter, a contractor for the U.S. intelligence community, has determined a pattern in Al Qaida statements. The study linked statements by Bin Laden and his chief deputy Ayman Zawahiri to major Al Qaida attacks in Europe and the Middle East. In his latest message, Bin Laden pledged that Al Qaida would soon attack the United States. He said his group was planning strikes and asserted that Al Qaida had infiltrated America. Undated fram grab of Al Qaida chief Osama Bin Laden. AFP/Al-Jazeera "The delay in similar operations happening in America has not been because of failure to break through your security measures," Bin Laden said. "The operations are under preparation and you will see them in your homes the minute they are through [with preparations]." Officials said Bin Laden certainly wanted to prove that he was alive following U.S. missile strikes in Pakistan on Jan. 13. Four senior Al Qaida operatives were reportedly killed in the missile attack, which unsuccessfully targeted Zawahiri. Pakistani intelligence has determined that Zawahiri was to have been in Damadola, Pakistan for a high-level strategy meeting. The meeting near the Afghan border was convened to determine Al Qaida targets in Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2006. One of the operatives reportedly killed in the U.S. strike was Zawahiri's son-in-law, Midhat Mursi. Mursi was Al Qaida's expert on chemical weapons. Zawahiri has also sought to assure his supporters that he is alive. On Jan. 20, an Islamic website released a tape by Zawahiri. But he did not refer to the U.S. strike in Damadola and officials said the tape might have been made years ago. Another question intelligence officials are tackling is when the Bin Laden message was taped. If the tape was made during the past week, it could signal an imminent attack, something not expected by the U.S. intelligence community. "You cannot, obviously, make any promises that it won't happen again in the future," Vice President Dick Cheney said. "But the fact of the matter is, we've done some very good work at interrupting the activities of the enemy, of disrupting proposed plots, of capturing and killing Al Qaida," he said. "It is no accident that we have not been hit for more than four years." Poster released by the U.S. of Al Qaida Chief Osama Bin Laden. AFP/Ho Cheney confirmed the voice on the tape was that of Bin Laden. But the vice president raised the possibility that the tape was "pieced together" from past statements of a much-weakened Al Qaida leader. Other intelligence analysts said Bin Laden's real aim was to warn the West that he remains a major threat. Over the past year, Bin Laden has observed Al Qaida undermining Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority. Bin Laden doesn't plan many attacks these days, officials said. Instead, his chief operative is Iraqi network chief Abu Mussib Al Zarqawi. Bin Laden has given him carte blanche to recruit anybody anywhere. U.S. Maj. Gen. Thomas Turner, commander of the Multinational Division North and the 101st Airborne Division, said Al Zarqawi was probably in northern Iraq. Turner acknowledged that Al Zarqawi has managed to find haven in this huge area of Iraq, much of which is dominated by Sunni tribes. "We do suspect that Zarqawi is still present in our area of operations somewhere," Turner said. "We continue to see organized networks of Al Qaida. We are very successful I think at killing leadership. They do have ways to regenerate." A leading analyst on Al Qaida, B. Raman, said Bin Laden's message does not appear to be culled from previous recordings. Raman, a former Indian cabinet secretary and director of the Institute for Topical Studies, cited Bin Laden's reference to a November 2005 report that President Bush sought to bomb Al-Jazeera. What strikes Raman is the poor quality of Bin Laden's message, in contrast to video and audio tapes by Zawahiri. Raman concluded that the two men were not in the same place and don't have access to the same facilities. "The recording is of poor quality as compared to the recent video and audio messages of Ayman Zawahiri, OBL's [Osama Bin Laden] No.2 and OBL's own messages of the past," Raman said. "This could be interpreted to indicate that OBL did not have at his disposal the same quality of recording facilities and experts as Zawahiri. Some analysts of the Islamic world have interpreted this as indicating that the two are not at the same place." In his message, Bin Laden gives the United States one more chance to avoid an Al Qaida attack. He demands a withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq and an end to interference in the Arab world. "His ill-concealed warning is: If the condition is not met, the preparations for another strike in U.S. territory will reach their logical culmination and strengthened security measures cannot stop it," Raman said. The tone appears in line with Bin Laden's messages in 2004. Bin Laden does not discuss the creation of an Islamic caliphate, and avoids threats against Muslim states. He also does not make any demands regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Instead, he focuses on Afghanistan and Iraq. "It warns of a terrorist strike in U.S. homeland at an appropriate time, if his offer is rejected," Raman said. "It is as much a psychological as an operational move by OBL. He has sought to give the impression that he is speaking from a position of strength." -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? 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