âDiplomacy will not be as effective as it could be if we leave out the option of military action. Pakistan tested its nuclear bomb in 1998, but it had a deliverable one a full decade earlier due to an egregious and illegal nuclear development program. I fear the same has happened in Iran, which is why we should not rule out military action.â But Sokolski warned that Western intelligence about Iran is too incomplete to knock out its nuclear capability, particularly regarding its many Western-trained nuclear technicians."
Iran-N.Korea program enriched uranium w/Pakistani help for several years until 2002 & likely already has a warhead & Korean missile delivery capability. David Bier http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=1606860&C=thisweek Posted 03/20/06 12:15 Europe, U.S. Split Over Moves Against Iran By BROOKS TIGNER, BRUSSELS Though Iran may be only months away from becoming a nuclear-ready state, U.S. and European experts deeply disagree on whether the international community should threaten military action against Tehran. But diplomats say a consensus is emerging among nuclear states that the mandate of the civil-oriented International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) should be quickly expanded to include more intrusive inspection of military facilities, documents and personnel. âIran is already nuclear and itâs no more than 12 to 48 months away from acquiring a nuclear bomb,â Henry Sokolski, director of the Washington-based Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, told a March 16 conference here on Iranâs nuclear ambitions. The conference was organized by the Transatlantic Institute. âIt has all the technology and materials it needs to produce one,â he said. âThe international community must react accordingly by isolating Iran, limiting its ability to maneuver and dissuading others from following the same path. or else proliferation will mushroom beyond anyoneâs control.â Sokolskiâs ideas were summarized in a 14-page report distributed during the meeting, âPreparing for a Long-term Competition with Iran.â The report calls for: ⢠Supporting a French proposal to create and apply country-neutral rules against signatories that demonstrably violate Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) rules by disallowing them to argue their right to pursue the peaceful use of nuclear energy. ⢠Reducing the vulnerability of Persian Gulf oil and gas infrastructure to terrorist disruption by building backup facilities in Saudi Arabia or connecting the pipelines of Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Saudi Arabia to Red Sea terminals. ⢠Increasing the size and scope of current naval and air interdictions in the Persian Gulf. ⢠Hemming in Iranâs ability to throttle the Strait of Hormuz by demilitarizing the region. ⢠Isolating and discrediting Iran as a fissile state by encouraging Israel to mothball its nuclear capabilities and urging Algeria and Egypt to do the same. Sokolski did not directly advocate pre-emptive military action against Iran, but said the international community has reached an impasse and it is time âto immediately start playing hardballâ with it. Fellow panelist Simon Henderson, a British political expert at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, took a harder line. âDiplomacy will not be as effective as it could be if we leave out the option of military action. Pakistan tested its nuclear bomb in 1998, but it had a deliverable one a full decade earlier due to an egregious and illegal nuclear development program. I fear the same has happened in Iran, which is why we should not rule out military action.â But Sokolski warned that Western intelligence about Iran is too incomplete to knock out its nuclear capability, particularly regarding its many Western-trained nuclear technicians. Moreover, European officials on the panel and in the audience insisted that diplomacy was the wiser choice. âI disagree that weâve reached an impasse and that Iran has everything it needs [to produce a nuclear bomb]. It would be a grave mistake to think that we have lost,â said Philippe Errera, deputy director of policy planning staff in Franceâs Foreign Ministry. âOtherwise, Iran would not be still using front companies to get the nuclear equipment and supplies it needs, as our intelligence repeatedly shows.â France and its two European Union partners of Germany and the United Kingdom, known as the EU3, ended two and half years of talks with Iran in February. Though they failed to lure Iran away from its nuclear ambitions with the promise of stronger economic, political and technological relations, Errera said the diplomatic effort yielded results. âIf we had not persuaded Iran to suspend its nuclear activities [near Isphahan], theyâd be much further down the road than they are today. Also, we now know far more about Iranâs nuclear program than three years ago,â said Errera, who was involved in the EU3 talks. The EU3 and the United State, now support transfer of the problem from the IAEA to the U.N. Security Council, and have asked the agency to issue a final report by early April on Tehranâs nuclear program. Though Russia and China â" both Security Council members, along with Britain, France and the United States â" continue to give mixed signals about submitting Iran to all U.N. sanctions, there is a consensus evolving that action is needed, diplomats here said. âI think everyone agrees that stronger IAEA powers of inspection, and using them in Iran and other dangerous places, is a priority,â a European diplomat said. Yet implementing country-neutral rules could have a price for responsible treaty members, Sokolski said. âWe have to say to Iran: You donât have the right to abuse your NPT membership [to blanket-cover development of non-civil nuclear energy]. But this could also mean that the United States, France and other nuclear states accept that some new rules might be imposed on them, too,â he said. ⢠E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] ---- Posted by David Bier, CADRE Intel Mgr http://groups.google.com/group/publicintel âMost men would rather believe than knowâ (Ben Franklin) Cargo Security: http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Sections/Newsweek/Components/Photos/Mag/060306_Issue/060225_perspcartoon_wide.hlarge.jpg Notes for Converts http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jane-smiley/notes-for-converts_b_17662.html -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: osint@yahoogroups.com Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. 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