http://kavkazcenter.com/eng/content/2006/11/02/6226.shtml
A powerful Hezbollah? Publication time: Today at 18:31 Djokhar time Following its stunning military victory against Israel in the recent war in Lebanon, Hezbollah movement seems determined to either replace or bring down the pro-American Lebanese government. Experts say that the magnitude of the defeat is considerable and the Israelis on the other hand appear to have lost at every level--strategic, operational and tactical. Air raids proved their failure, as well as attempts to blockade Lebanon and thus cut off Hezbollah's resupply. Israel's caches proved ample. Also the ground offensive in South Lebanon failed. Israel has paid heavily in casualties for that and couldn't hold what it has taken; Hezbollah pushed it out, as it did once before. Many experts have been suggesting, since fighting ended in August, that the Shias now enjoy far more popular support than reflected in their share of government posts under Lebanon's power-sharing arrangement, that had been set as part of a deal that brought to an end the country civil war in 1990, and divides power among the country's main sectarian groups -- Shia, Sunni Muslims, Druze, and Christians. Muslims make up two thirds of the Lebanese population, while Christians form half of the population. That is the "confessional democracy" - established by France as the Mandate Power, modified after the 1975-1990 civil war and buttressed by the Cedar Revolution of 2005 - that Muslims and Christians have an equal share of seats in the 128-member parliament, according to CommonDreams' website. Shias on the other hand form three fifths of the country's Muslims, they are entitled to two fifths of the Muslim seats. Maronite Catholics are entitled to the presidency, elected by the parliament; Sunni Muslims to the premiership; and Shia Muslims to the parliamentary speaker. Being the poorest, Lebanese Shias have been the traditional underdogs, until in 1967, when Ayatollah Musa al Sadr formed the Higher Shia Communal Council (HSCC). Following the outbreak of the Lebanese civil in 1975, Sadr set up a militia adjunct to the HSCC, called the Lebanese Resistance Detachments, known as Amal. Three years later Sadr "disappeared." In 1982, Israel occupied the Lebanese territories and Amal split. This was the beginning of the formation of Hezbollah, or Party of God, aimed at resisting the occupiers. As Hezbollah started launching its attacks against the Israeli army stationed in southern Lebanon, Tehran, Hezbollah's main ally since then, increased its military aid, with Syria acting as the conduit. Through its Martyrs Foundation, Iran provided Hezbollah with funds to improve health, education and other public services for needy Shias. Today, with Hezbollah much powerful than before the recent war as experts and political analysts assert, the Shia group and Christian political party led by General Michel Aoun seek reshuffling the Lebanese government in a way that would grant both groups more positions, and gives Hezbollah veto power over any legislation, other wise, as they threatened, Aoun's party and Hezbollah would boycott the government or try to bring it down through strikes and street demonstrations if they don't get more posts. Hezbollah threatened Tuesday to organise street protests to force early elections in Lebanon if its demands for a "national unity" Cabinet that would give the Islamic group veto power over key decisions, are not met. Hezbollah seems assured that its threat will further exacerbate an already tense political situation in Lebanon, where the government of Prime Minister Fuad Saniora has refused the group's previous calls to step down and allow the formation of a new Cabinet. "Our concept of the national unity government is that all the basic forces in Lebanon be in it ... actual and serious participation, not an aesthetic participation," Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's leader, said during an interview on Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV. The Shia movement has been providing vital help in rebuilding southern Lebanon villages and poor suburbs where the Shias are concentrated. It also maintains that Lebanon's Shia population has grown faster than others, warranting a greater share of power than Shia got under the 1990 deal, according to an editorial on Boston. COM's website. Hezbollah has two ministers in the Lebanese government and more than a tenth of the seats in parliament. But Washington and the Lebanese government fear giving Hezbollah the veto power would paralyze the government, while giving the Syrians more influence over Lebanon. Also extending Hezbollah's influence would mean that the United States will find itself forced to cut ties with the Lebanese government, since it boycotts all Hezbollah officials. A scenario similar to a great extent to Hamas' in Palestine. "On a domestic level, after the war, Hezbollah became stronger and stronger," said sociologist Ali Fayyad, director of a Hezbollah think tank that produces many of the party's policy papers. Fayyad had been quoted previously as saying that Hezbollah's victory in the recent war has made it almost impossible to continue supporting international calls to disarming it- something the Lebanese government and its foreign backers, including the United States and France, had long been pushing for. Lebanese government officials share the same view.Aoun, a Lebanese politician who serves as Prime Minister during the period between 22 September 1988 and 13 October 1990, joined Hezbollah's leader in an unusual political union in February, and now both rail against government corruption and nepotism. Until last year, Aoun was supporting calls to disarm Hezbollah. But now he has accorded broader legitimacy to the Shia movement by giving it a cross-sectarian base, in exchange for Shias' support for next years' presidential bid. Aoun believes the government "bankrupted the country, and runs it like a mafia," he said in a recent interview. "They are puppets. They cannot resist popular pressure and strikes, because they aren't supported by the people." If Hezbollah's demands are met, this would significantly raise the movement's standing in the Cabinet, where the group and its Shia ally, Amal, have five ministers. Also a veto power and influence in decision-making would bolster their standing in the parliament, where the group and its allies hold less than half the seats, while anti-Syrian majority hold 70 seats. [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: osint@yahoogroups.com Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. 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