http://www.dawn.com/2006/12/24/int13.htm
Election gamble can push Palestine into civil war By Peter Hirschberg JERUSALEM: Frustrated with the impasse in unity talks with Hamas, the usually unadventurous, risk-averse Mahmoud Abbas is embarking on what can only be described as the biggest political gamble of his long career -- his decision to call early Palestinian elections. If it comes off, the Palestinian president will have restored his more moderate Fatah party to power and renewed the chance of reaching a peace agreement with Israel. But if the gamble fails, it could entrench the Islamic Hamas in power, dealing a death-blow to any reconciliation with Israel. More ominously, it could propel the Palestinians into all-out civil war. Abbas' decision to call for early parliamentary and presidential elections -- he says he has still left the door open to Hamas for talks on a government of national unity -- has already precipitated the worst factional violence since the Palestinian Authority was created 12 years ago. At least 10 Palestinians, most of them Fatah and Hamas militants, have been killed in a week of street battles and kidnappings. Militants have fired at the convoys of Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh and Hamas Foreign Minister Mahmoud Zahar (they both emerged unscathed). Mortar shells have been lobbed at Abbas' residence in the Gaza Strip (he was in Ramallah at the time). In one incident, Fatah sources said that the bodies of two of their members were dumped in a Gaza street after they had been abducted by Hamas militants and shot dead. In one gun battle, a Hamas man was killed and 11 people injured, when militants from the two warring sides faced off just outside the main Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. During the hour-long battle militants took up positions on the rooftops overlooking the hospital and also fired rocket-propelled grenades at one another. In yet another incident, Hamas militants kidnapped Sufyan Abu Zaideh, a senior Fatah official in Gaza. He was released two hours later, after Fatah militants snatched 11 Hamas activists and threatened to execute some of them if Abu Zaideh was not freed. Both Abbas and Haniyeh have called for an end to the internal warfare, and the sides agreed to two ceasefires in the space of four days. The first collapsed within 24 hours. The second is more or less holding, punctuated by sporadic outbursts of violence. A Hamas activist was killed and another kidnapped overnight Thursday in Gaza, while three people were injured in clashes between Fatah and Hamas in Nablus on Friday. While Abbas strongly supports dialogue with Israel, Hamas does not recognise Israel's right to exist. This rejectionist position has cost the Palestinians dearly: since Hamas trounced Fatah in parliamentary elections last January and then set up a government, the Palestinian Authority has been decimated by crippling economic sanctions imposed by the US, Europe and Israel. Abbas believed that by setting up a national unity government that more or less accepted the three terms laid out by the Quartet (United States, Russia, the European Union and the United Nations) -- renunciation of violence, recognition of Israel and adherence to existing Israeli-Palestinian interim agreements -- he would be able to persuade the international community to lift sanctions. But unity talks with Hamas broke down last month, resulting in his call in mid-December for new elections, which could be held within six months. While the Palestinian president has blamed Hamas for the impasse, Hamas leaders have accused Abbas of trying to carry out a "coup" just nine months after they took power. Haniyeh, who says Hamas would boycott early elections, has also questioned whether Abbas has the constitutional power to dismiss the government. "We confirm that the Palestinian government refuses the invitation to early elections because it is unconstitutional," he said in Gaza. Despite the sanctions and the fact that the Palestinian Authority has for months been unable, as a result, to pay salaries to tens of thousands of government workers, it is not clear to what extent Hamas' popularity has been dented. Or, whether Fatah has become a more attractive alternative since it was trounced almost a year ago by the Islamic movement. An opinion poll conducted by the West Bank-based Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research found Fatah had a lead -- 42 per cent to 36 per cent -- over Hamas, and that Abbas (46 per cent) and Haniyeh (45 per cent) were neck-and-neck in a presidential run-off. Fatah's spectacular electoral defeat last January was due in large measure to the public's perception of the organisation as corrupt, especially the senior leadership, whereas Hamas leaders were seen as putting national interest above personal aggrandisement. Despite Hamas' drop in popularity, it is not at all clear that voters are ready yet to forgive Fatah, which has yet to carry out reforms that many of its younger guard believe are essential if it is to regain public confidence. Reform is often a code word for the generational battle within Fatah. While the old guard -- those senior Palestinian Liberation Organisation officials who returned from Tunis in the mid-1990s to run the Palestinian Authority -- has dominated the movement, the younger guard of activists, who have grown up in the occupied territories, has long sought a more prominent role. Just after his call for early elections, Abbas announced that a local Fatah leadership, drawn from the younger generation, was being set up to reform the movement. It is not clear that Abbas, who is a member of the old guard, would run for re-election as president. He has said he will not seek another term. One alternative could be Marwan Barghouti, a Fatah lawmaker and a highly popular figure who is part of the movement's younger guard. The 47-year-old Barghouti is serving five life terms in an Israeli jail for involvement in attacks in which Israelis were killed during the Palestinian uprising. Even though he is behind bars, there is no law that prevents him from running. Many dovish Israelis believe Barghouti is the one leader who could ultimately do a deal with Israel that could lead to an end to the conflict. ---Dawn/The IPS News Service +++ -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: osint@yahoogroups.com Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. OSINT, as a part of The Intelligence Network, is making it available without profit to OSINT YahooGroups members who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information in their efforts to advance the understanding of intelligence and law enforcement organizations, their activities, methods, techniques, human rights, civil liberties, social justice and other intelligence related issues, for non-profit research and educational purposes only. We believe that this constitutes a 'fair use' of the copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Law. If you wish to use this copyrighted material for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use,' you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/osint/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/osint/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
