Princes at odds Dec 19th 2006 From The Economist print edition Does an abrupt ambassadorial exit presage a fresh struggle for power? IF THERE is anything thicker, stickier and less transparent than crude oil, it is the inner workings of Saudi Arabia. This is why the abrupt resignation of Prince Turki al-Faisal (pictured), the kingdom's high-profile ambassador to America, has provoked a geyser of speculation. Some of the talk centres on alleged troubles bubbling in the crucial Saudi-American alliance, and some on a perceived power struggle between factions of the Saudi ruling family. What is sure is that Prince Turki is no mere career diplomat. He is a nephew of King Abdullah and brother of Prince Saud al-Faisal, the long-serving foreign minister. Before going as ambassador to London in 2002 and Washington in 2005, the suave, Georgetown-educated prince had spent 24 years heading the Saudi intelligence services, handling such missions as funnelling covert funds to Afghan mujahideen. It is also clear that Prince Turki did not resign in order, as he diplomatically averred, to spend more time with his family. His move was announced obliquely in Washington, and had yet, a week later, to be confirmed by any statement from the Saudi capital, Riyadh. He took up the post only 17 months ago, and won much praise for a quiet but approachable style that contrasted with the flamboyance of his predecessor (and cousin and brother-in-law), Prince Bandar bin Sultan, who had forged close friendships with every American president since Ronald Reagan. Much of the current flood of rumour swirls around ostensibly strained relations between the two princes. Since leaving Washington last year, Prince Bandar, whose father, Prince Sultan, is Saudi Arabia's defence minister and next-in-line to the throne, has served as national security adviser to the Saudi king. In that post he is said to have advocated a more aggressive foreign policy for the kingdom, in a break from the quiet chequebook diplomacy long pursued by the Faisal brothers. He is also said to have pursued initiatives independent of the now-ailing foreign minister, including a recent unannounced visit to Washington where he is said to have encouraged Bush administration hawks to resist mounting calls to engage with Iran and Syria. Prince Turki, for his part, has called America's refusal to talk to Iran a mistake. Such differences may reflect an unresolved split in Saudi attitudes towards the war in Iraq. Strong tribal and religious ties link the Al Saud family to Iraq's beleaguered Sunni minority, while an historic rivalry with Shia Iran, along with suspicion of Saudi Arabia's own Shia minority, fuels fears that the Islamic Republic harbours hegemonic designs on the region. Looming possibilities, such as Iran developing nuclear weapons, America abandoning Iraq to the control of an Iranian-backed Shia government and Lebanon slipping back into Syria's orbit, have lately exacerbated such fears. Some Saudis have backed cautious policies, such as the building of a costly defensive barrier along their long desert border with Iraq. Others, reflecting an upsurge of sectarian feeling recently expressed in a joint statement by Wahhabist clerics demanding Sunni mobilisation against Shias in Iraq, have called for more direct action. Nawaf Obeid, a Saudi security consultant and adviser to Prince Turki, suggested in a recent column in the Washington Post that, in the event of an American withdrawal, Saudi Arabia should intervene forcibly on the side of Iraq's Sunnis. Prince Turki fired Mr Obeid for this indiscretion, leaving some to speculate that the consultant had been pushed by the ambassador's rivals into publishing his opinions. Some well-placed Saudis believe such differences have as much to do with internecine royal politics as with foreign policy. Though the Al Sauds tend to act by building careful consensus within the family, the potential for clashes between two main factions still exists. One links King Abdullah to pragmatists such as the Faisal brothers, while the other is led by Crown Prince Sultan, who heads the powerful Sudairi branch and whose full brothers include the arch-conservative minister of the interior, Prince Nayef, and the governor of Riyadh, Prince Salman. Both the king and crown prince are in their 80s; despite a recent change in succession rules to dilute the Sudairis' influence, worries persist that King Abdullah has grown too weak to block their eventual rise to power. Copyright © 2006 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.
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