http://english.ohmynews.com/articleview/article_view.asp?no=347241&rel_no=1
Applying the 'Libya Model' to Iran
Proven diplomatic option could help avert yet another war
Michael Werbowski (minou)
Published 2007-02-26 14:34 (KST)
Imagine a country that was a thorn in the West's side for decades,
somewhat like Iran is today. A pariah considered to be a vilified
outcast on the international stage. An Arab monster under sanction which
planned and perpetrated "state-sponsored" terrorist attacks. A regional
bogeyman and declared archenemy of America which fomented dissent
against America's allies while it aided terrorist groups and plotted
against Western interests worldwide.
Imagine such a state with enormous oil riches run buy a despot who
appears slightly off kilter to some and a dangerous demagogue to others,
who threatens to develop nuclear weapons and use them against his
enemies. Now picture this: what if the U.S., the valiant defender of
freedom, instead of attacking with a massive aerial bombardment decided
to co-opt this wicked state into renouncing its WMD program and in
return see the nation's leader give big oil access to his black gold. A
fictionalized scenario? Not at all; this is what happened to Colonel
Muammar el-Gadaffi's Libya not long ago.
One plausible scenario to avert war with Iran is what diplomats have
coined the "Libya model." The bare bones of this policy look a bit like
this: After 18 years and one surprise U.S air strike, sanctions against
Libya were dropped in 2004 when it agreed to compensate the victims of
the Lockerbie plane bombing which its agents had carried out.
A hesitant courtship ensued, and an eventual full reconciliation between
the West and Libya culminated in 2006 with full diplomatic relations
being restored with Libya's former foes the U.K and the U.S.
Naturally this did not happen overnight. The U.S and Tripoli engaged in
direct, although secret, talks under the Clinton administration
beforehand. Libya when it disarmed was well on the way to developing
WMD, or so weapons inspectors believed. In fact, the country didn't even
bother to hide its venal intentions, and like North Korea brazenly
declared having the means to enrich uranium.
Despite several showdowns such as the U.S.-led air strike in the early
1980s, the interest of big oil executives eventually trumped those of
the army's top brass, and at the end of the day war plans were finally
shelved. Condoleezza Rice, an erstwhile denizen of the petroleum
industry herself, stepped in and made official overtures to Gadaffi.
Instead of wielding the big airstrike stick again, the U.S. offered some
carrots in the form of concessions. Libya desperately needed Western
investment and technologies to exploit its oil deposits. For its part,
the West was terribly eager to acquire access to a new supply of
petroleum. Once the talks concluded, Gadaffi agreed to give up his
nuclear aspiration in return for Western oilmen coming into the country
with much-needed investment cash.
This helped, no doubt, stimulate the moribund economy. Another key
Western sweetener for Tripoli was the dropping of U.S.-sponsored U.N.
sanctions, which opened the country up for business and also led to
Gaddafi's discreet return onto the international stage.
Whether the so-called "Libya model" is applicable in the case of Iran is
speculative at best, but it's a successfully tested scenario that's at
least worth a try. The other option -- an all-out war in the Persian
Gulf -- is much worse.
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