Intelligence chiefs told of Iran's reprisal threat

Gethin Chamberlain, Tim Shipman and Kay Biouki in Teheran, Sunday
Telegraph

Last Updated: 12:54am BST 26/03/2007

British Intelligence chiefs were warned in January to expect reprisal
attacks from Iran after America detained five suspected Iranian
intelligence officers in Iraq.





Although the CIA alert led to the United States raising its official
security threat level throughout the Middle East and elsewhere, Britain
did not follow suit.

The warning came after the US received credible information that
Iranian-backed extremists were plotting attacks on Western targets.

American intelligence analysts told their British counterparts that the
arrest of the five Iranians would have a direct impact on southern Iraq.
Crucially, they warned that there was evidence that Iran intended to
step up attacks in the border area and around Basra, where British
forces are based.

A security source said: "The intelligence was passed to the UK and was
generally disseminated. The intelligence that led to the arrests showed
that Iran was financing and facilitating operations on the border and in
the South.

"But there was no raising of comparative threat levels by the British,
even though the majority of casualties from Iranian weaponry have been
the British, not the Americans. Perhaps we should have been more on
alert."

Relations between Iran and the West have deteriorated in recent months
due to the diplomatic stand off over Teheran's nuclear programme and a
growing anger in Washington and London over Iranian interference in
Iraq.

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Both sides have accused the other of spreading misinformation and the US
and Iran have each ratcheted up their military standing in the region,
with the Iranians acquiring new missile capabilities and the US moving
two aircraft carriers into the Gulf.

Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is under pressure at home over
his management of the ailing Iranian economy and he has been openly
criticised for antagonising not just the West, but also traditional
allies such as Russia, with his hardline stance on the nuclear issue.

Iran's capture of the 14 British servicemen and one servicewoman in the
Gulf, close to the Shatt al-Arab waterway which separates Iran from
Iraq, took the British military by surprise. Senior defence officials
said the incident was unlikely to have been a misunderstanding because
British and Iranian forces were well-versed in the niceties of working
cheek by jowl.

"We have a non-escalatory posture with respect to the Iranians," one
senior official said. "Day in, day out, working in a difficult
situation, you tend to work out how to react.

"No one wants to be in a position where you get into a shooting war with
somebody. Our posture towards them, and theirs towards us, is to avoid
confrontation."

The sailors and marines were seized as they returned to their small
rigid inflatable boats after boarding a ship suspected of being involved
in smuggling in the waterway.

A defence official said they had completed their mission, which was
described as "amiable", and were preparing to return to the Type 22
frigate Cornwall, from which they had been operating, when they were
surrounded by Iranian gunboats.

Given the overwhelming odds, they had no choice but to go along with the
Iranian demands, the official said.

The Ministry of Defence yesterday declined to explain why Cornwall had
failed to spot the approach of the Iranian gunboats, or why it had not
then intervened.

The five Iranian officials arrested in northern Iraq in January were
accused of membership of the al Quds force, which mounts overseas
operations. Two other suspected members of the group, which is the
intelligence arm of the Revolutionary Guard, were picked up in Baghdad
in December and expelled.

Members of the Revolutionary Guard, which owes its allegiance directly
to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, were behind both the latest
seizure of British personnel and the capture of eight British servicemen
in similar circumstances on the same waterway in 2004. The unit's
commanders recently threatened to retaliate against what they say is a
campaign of kidnapping of its officers by western intelligence.

Some sources in Teheran last night suggested that the captured Britons
would be released "within a day or two". "Iranians have no intentions of
creating another international dispute with the world, and it is not
likely that they would allow this to escalate into a bigger diplomatic
problem," one source said.



 
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