http://www.thestate <http://www.thestate.com/world/story/118311.html> .com/world/story/118311.html Posted on Sat, Jul. 14, 2007 Al-Qaida spreads violent message Osama bin Laden's top deputy able to issue statements to public with ease and speed By PAUL HAVEN - The Associated Press
When Islamic radicals killed 52 people in London two years ago, it took nearly a month for Osama bin Laden's top deputy to blame Britain itself for the carnage. But this week, when the No. 2 man in al-Qaida decided to weigh in on Pakistan's bloody crackdown on a radical mosque, he was able to get his violent message onto hard-line Islamic Web sites in a matter of days. Analysts and intelligence experts say the speed and frequency with which Ayman al-Zawahri has been issuing statements does not reflect the actions of a man cowering in a remote cave, cut off from the outside world and unable to direct terror operations. If anything, the video and audio tapes offer chilling evidence that al-Qaida's leaders are in greater command than previously feared. "The notion of them hiding in a deep, dark primitive cave isolated from electricity and all communication with the outside is strongly misguided," said Ben Venzke of the IntelCenter, a U.S.-based intelligence group that monitors terrorism messages. Venzke said the surge in al-Qaida propaganda messages began in 2006, and the terror network has doubled the pace this year. The group's media wing, al-Sahab, released 58 audio and video messages last year; this year's tally is already 62. U.S. counterterrorism analysts said this week that al-Qaida has restored its operating capabilities to a level unseen since the months before the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. And while the intelligence does not point to a specific threat, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said this week that he has a "gut feeling" the United States faces a heightened risk of attack this summer. Al-Zawahri certainly is acting like a man with renewed confidence. Since January, he has issued at least 10 audio and video tapes on a host of developments, from America's security crackdown in Iraq to Britain's decision to grant a knighthood to author Salman Rushdie. The videos are getting more and more sophisticated and include news footage taken from Arab and Western broadcasters. Al-Zawahri's reaction to the siege of the Red Mosque in Pakistan was remarkably swift. The July 11 audio message, released with a video showing a still image of the al-Qaida leader, came out eight days after the siege began. The absence of bin Laden from recent al-Qaida messages may be a reflection of a long-held belief that the two men are no longer in hiding together, according to a senior Pakistani intelligence agent. Bin Laden was last heard from in a July 1, 2006 audio tape in which he voiced support for the new leader of al-Qaida in Iraq and warned nations not to send troops to fight a hard-line Islamic regime that had seized power in Somalia. Rohan Gunaratna, an analyst who heads the International Center for Political Violence and Terrorism Research in Singapore, said bin Laden's silence is a sign that al-Zawahri has supplanted him as al-Qaida's supreme commander. "Ayman al-Zawahri has emerged as the leader of the global jihad movement. He's not only speaking on behalf of al-Qaida, but as the leader of the al-Qaida organization and its associated homegrown groups," he said. That assessment was disputed by Venzke, who said it is impossible to draw any conclusions from bin Laden's silence. He noted the terror chief has remained off the airwaves before, only to return with a flurry of statements. Regardless of where al-Zawahri and bin Laden are, Venzke said the volume of video and audio messages belies the notion - perpetuated by the Bush administration - that al-Qaida's leaders are so busy trying not to get caught that their ability to direct operatives has been substantially degraded. 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