http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=91051 A Talibanized Pakistan with nuclear weapons: A credible nightmare?
Pakistan's Gen. Pervez Musharraf's highly controversial actions since Nov.3 have caused remarkable discontent both inside Pakistan and among the international community. It is actually widely believed that his move basically stemmed from his fear that the Supreme Court was about to declare his re-election while in uniform unconstitutional. Musharraf, in turn, justified his actions by pointing to the deterioration of law and order in the country. In response to growing international criticism, on the other hand, he presented the measures he took as part of his attempts to save the country from the menace of terrorism. The enigma henceforth should be, as posed by analyst Ijaz Gul, whether Musharraf has in fact become "a victim of his exaggerated threat perception or exaggerated indispensability." Last Friday I attended a stimulating seminar organized by Bilkent University's International Relations department titled "International Security Cooperation: Intelligence Practices." The most interesting speech was the keynote address by Tariq Parvez, the director general of Pakistan's Federal Investigation Agency. Are things as dire as Musharraf claims? Mr. Parvez's presentation commenced with statistical data, in fact clearly demonstrating how sensitive the current situation in Pakistan has become: Between 2002-2006 the annual number of suicide bombings in Pakistan was five. In 2007, however, this number has already reached 35 in total. (Unfortunately, just two days after his address another suicide bombing was staged at a military base in Pakistan's Swat valley, killing seven people.) Given Pakistan's ethnic or sectarian fabric, this rise in suicide bombings is not surprising at all. At present, the country not only suffers from widespread sectarian violence and ungoverned territory in its northern provinces but also from rapidly growing Islamist militancy and ethnic separatism. The Taliban's rule in Afghanistan, the initial consolidation for which the Pakistani intelligence is also responsible, enormously affected Pakistan's northwestern part and the semi-autonomous Pashtun tribal region. The Taliban's subsequent years in power were marked by a huge influx of refugees, increasing arms and drug trafficking from Afghanistan into Pakistan. As a result, Taliban insurgencies as well as al-Qaeda-related jihadist terrorism are indeed flourishing in the country today. Separatist inclinations are equally important. The Taliban is effectively exploiting secessionist sentiments among the 41 million Pashtuns who live on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistani frontier. In September, the father of one of the 300 seminary students killed in the July assault on the Red Mosque blew himself up in a military mess hall after shouting Pashtun nationalist slogans. In western Baluchistan, on the other hand, a separatist insurgency is flaring as well. Is Musharraf the only person to blame? No doubt, Musharraf indeed turned Pakistan's much-criticized strategic orientation away from the Taliban. As maintained by Fareed Zakaria in a recent Newsweek article, he also did things "neither of his democratically elected predecessors - Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto - had dared to do." At least, he successfully managed to move his country toward "moderation and modernity." However, the cost he had subsequently to pay was very high. He alienated many in Pakistan due to his alliance with Washington in a war they see as directed at both Islam and their ethnic-Pashtun kin in Afghanistan. By refusing to take off his army uniform and allow "unrigged" elections, he further lost the liberals' support he had once obtained. Musharraf should not have felt indispensable. The much-feared possibility of radical religious militants taking control of Pakistan and its nuclear weapons is exaggerated. Pakistan will not turn into Iran. As pointed out by Zakaria as well, "the fact that the first crowds to take to the streets to protest emergency rule were pinstriped lawyers is a testament to the strength of civil society in Pakistan." The country has indeed a brilliant secular elite. Yet, Pakistan can actually not remain stable while Pakistani politics is so divided. Greater unity in Pakistani politics is essential and it was precisely for this reason that Washington urged cooperation between Musharraf on the one hand and Bhutto on the other. The Pakistani opposition, however, should not feel indispensable either. I am afraid to say that I do not find their sensitivity to democratic norms as sincere as they try to demonstrate. What actually strikes me most in countries like Pakistan or Turkey is the unfortunate fact that most politicians remember the value of democracy only if they themselves need it. I am pretty sure that if it were not for the corruption or mismanagement of the current opposition parties, there would not have been four military coups in Pakistan's short history. As a prominent Turkish poet whose works I greatly enjoy reading wrote, "All the colors were soiling at the same speed. White was given first prize." [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: [email protected] Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. 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