http://www.defense-update.com/analysis/analysis_161207_algire.htm
Defeated in Iraq, Al Qaeda Migrates to Maghreb -
Next Stop: Europe
David Eshel
The twin blasts that caused such devastation in Algeria this week posted a grim
announcement that an Islamic group, once thought to have been defeated, is back
in its bloody business. Poised to extend its ruthless tactics throughout North
Africa, it is making the first stop towards its ultimate target - the European
continent. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, (AQIM) is becoming a dominant
element in Osama Bin Laden's global terror ambition.
This will be the first prolonged stay of a Russian carrier to the eastern
Mediterranean in waters dominated with regular patrolled by the US Sixth Fleet
and in vicinity of Israel’s shores. On its decks Admiral Kuznetsov carries 47
warplanes (mostly Su-33) and 10 helicopters. The Russian Black Sea Fleet
contingent, which has already set out for its new mission from Sevastopol, will
rely on the naval facilities at Syria’s Tartous port. Its presence for
several months will be a complication for the Israel navy’s operations
opposite the Lebanese and Syrian coasts, especially if the Russians could be
joined at Tartous by Iranian extended Kilo class submarines armed with the
Russian-made "Sizzler" Klub-S (3M54) missile, as some unofficial Israeli
sources reported. The Rusian Kuznetsov carrier group will conduct three
tactical exercises, including real and simulated launch of missiles, said
Serdyukov, adding 11 port visits are expected to be made.
Sending such powerful Russian warships onto the Mediterranean, for any amount
of time, is no small matter. With the Mediterranean having been a "NATO lake"
for the past 15 years, since the demise of the Soviet Union, the simple
presence of a naval Russian force will require reviewed strategy and tactics of
many of western and Israeli navies.
The attack in Algeria last Tuesday seems clearly linked to the regional
strategy of weakening the secular governments in North Afirca, the Maghreb,
resuming the 1990s warfare against Kuffar (infidel) institutions, society and
administrations. But unlike in the past decade, these operations are now
strategically coordinated with Al-Qaeda central direction, not only in terms of
operations, but by distinct policies and international decision-making. The
Jihadist incitement against the Algerian authorities, including mostly via the
al-Jazeera shows, usually indicates the trends to come. Algiers was accused by
the Salafi forces as "betraying the Muslim world and associating with French
kuffar." The recent visit by French President Nicholas Sarkozy to Algeria may
well have contributed to the strikes which came already in line with this
incitement.
AQIM emerged in 2006 from the remnants of the Salafist "Group for Preaching and
Combat", an Islamic group best known in the 1990s for its grisly tactic of
wiping out entire villages it considered insufficiently fervent in their
religious beliefs. The group was believed to be virtually eliminated by 2001,
when Algerian security forces cracked down on their leaders. But last year, on
the fifth anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks, Al-Qaeda lieutenant Ayman
al-Zawahiri released a videotape announcing that the group had joined forces
with Osama bin Laden. Al-Zawahiri praised the "blessed union," declared France
an enemy and urged Al-Qaeda's newest franchise to fight against French and
American interests.
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In January 2007, the group announced that it had changed its name to Al-Qaeda
in the Islamic Maghreb. Soon after, the resurgent group went on the offensive
April 11, detonating two car bombs. One car bomb exploded close to the prime
minister's office in Algiers, resulting in the death of 33 people and more than
150 wounded. In September the AQIM targeted President Abdelaziz Bouteflika
himself, when a suicide bomber blew himself up in the middle of a crowd waiting
for the Algerian president.
Analysts believe that one of the reasons for the rise in Al Qaeda's terrorist
activities in the Maghreb stems from the group's defeat in Western Iraq earlier
this year.
On October 22nd, Osama bin Laden surprisingly admitted that al Qaeda had lost
its war in Iraq. In an audiotape speech titled "Message to the people of Iraq,"
bin Laden complained of disunity and poor use of resources. He admits that
Al-Qaeda made mistakes, and that all Sunni Arabs must unite to defeat the
foreigners and Shia Moslems. Two months later it was Abou Omar Al Baghdadi the
supposed leader of the "Islamic State in Iraq" which is actually Al-Qaeda
there, said that only 200 Mohajeroon ("immigrants" in Arabic) are left in Iraq.
In fact, Al-Qaeda fighters have been migrating to northern areas of Iraq after
being chased out of safe havens in Baghdad and other volatile regions. Sunni
and Shia warlords got tired of Americans spinning their wheels, while building
up the surge, seized and chased out Al-Qaeda from Anbar province.
________________________________
"We will not be in peace until we set our foot again in our beloved
al-Andalus," an Al-Qaeda leader in the Islamic Maghreb said on claiming
responsibility for an attack which killed at least 24 people in Algiers.
________________________________
As for their new Algerian venue, the creation of AQIM was not Al-Qaeda's first
attempt to establish a branch in North Africa. In 2005, Moroccan security
forces exposed and captured a cell of Al-Qaeda operatives. The cell's leaders
had close relations with Abu Mus'ab Al-Zarqawi and with other top Al-Qaeda
commanders. According to Moroccan and European security sources, they confessed
that they were planning to establish what was to be called "The Al-Qaeda
Organization in the Arab Maghreb" - and the name as that eventually authorized
by bin Laden for the new Groupe Salafiste pour la Predication et le Combat
(GSPC) or Salafist Group for Call and Combat. French counter-terrorist agents
are concerned with the group's considerable strategic depth in the Sahara and
geographical proximity to Europe. Al-Qaeda's new North African wing threatens
to turn the western Mediterranean basin into a live front in the global jihad.
The blowback effect with Algerian fighters, who have honed terrorist skills in
attacks in Iraq and are now returning to Algeria with the intention of
replicating similar atrocities is boding a somber outlook. It is very much the
way the previous generation returned hardened from the Afghanistan experience
during the Soviet occupation in the mid-1980s. But not only in Algeria is
Al-Qaeda establishing its new stronghold. Counter-insurgency experts said this
week that Al-Qaeda Organization for the Islamic Maghreb â€" the product of a
2006 merger with the Salafist Brigade for Combat and Call, or GSPC â€" has been
franchised to virtually every Arab state in North Africa. They said the
networks maintained contact and coordinated major strikes. "GSPC has become, as
it were, a sort of regional branch of Al Qaeda its mission being to federate
all the radical, Salafist organizations in North Africa â€" Moroccan, Libyan
and Tunisian have already joined forces with bin Laden's global terrorist
groups.
The Algerian GSPC is led by 'Abd Al-Wadoud, whose real name is Abdelmalek
Droukdal, whom a top secret French intelligence report classified as the main
terrorist threat to France and Europe. In fact, never in the past has Al-Qaeda
had such a solid territorial base in such proximity to Western states, and it
has already threatened to employ this base to attack Europe. The unification of
the North African jihad groups under the banner of Al-Qaeda, the use of the
Sahara for training and arms-smuggling, and the number of North African cells
discovered in Europe in the past all indicate the magnitude of the threat. "An
attack perpetrated by local or international networks remains likely," warned
Gilles de Kerchove, newly appointed in September to coordinate
counter-terrorism efforts among EU member states, told the European Parliament.
The emergence of a new Al-Qaeda-linked organization in Northern Africa is
particularly alarming to Spain, which is concerned about Islamists' calls for
the reconquest of the country they regard as a lost part of the Muslim world.
"We will not be in peace until we set our foot again in our beloved
al-Andalus," an Al-Qaeda leader in the Islamic Maghreb said on claiming
responsibility for an attack which killed at least 24 people in Algiers.
Andalus is the Moorish name for Spain, parts of which were ruled by Muslims for
about eight centuries until the last Moorish bastion, Granada, succumbed to the
Christian Reconquest in 1492. The reference to al-Andalus was not the first by
Al-Qaeda, which has also vowed to put an end to the Spanish 'occupation' of the
enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla on the Moroccan coast. Such announcements worry
the security services in Spain, where 29 mainly Moroccan suspects are on trial
for the 2004 Madrid train bombings that killed 191 and injured about 1,800
people.
"Today, the threat posed by this alliance of the GSPC and Al-Qaeda constitutes
a heightened threat to the countries of Northern Africa, which have been
destabilized and can be destabilized even more, but also to France, which is
considered as a priority target…" said Jean-Louis Bruguiere, France's top
anti-terrorism judge, in a recent interview. The United States also has long
been concerned about the GSPC and is working with Algeria and its neighbors to
combat the perceived threat through a program called the Trans-Sahara
Counter-Terrorism Partnership, worth an estimated $600mn over the next five to
seven years.
Al-Qaeda may have lost its grip in some areas, but certainly has grown into
dangerous proportions in another highly strategic environment, creating "clear
and present" threat to European nations, which already have a significant
portion of unstable Muslim immigrants, an ideal breeding ground for local
terrorist and insurgency.
For further reading we recommend:
* Holy War Inflames Strategic Horn of Africa
<http://www.defense-update.com/newscast/1206/analysis/analysis-271206.htm>
(12/2006)
* The Zaidi Shi'a in Yemen - Iran's Next Objective
<http://www.defense-update.com/analysis/analysis_070707_yemen.htm> (1/2007)
* Al Qaeda spurs Gaza carnage to create Hamastan
<http://www.defense-update.com/analysis/analysis_210507_Gaza.htm> (5/2007)
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