http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/id.7066/pub_detail.asp

 


End of the World...for Real?


August 17, 2010 -
<http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/authors/id.27/author_detail.asp> James
Carafano, PhD 

                                

Last week we were attacked by the sun. For real. Huge solar eruptions sent a
blast of radiation toward Earth. Thankfully, the planet's natural magnetic
shield warded off the worst effects. Life went on uninterrupted. 

 

That won't always be the case. In 1859, Richard Carrington recorded what is
now called the "Carrington Effect" -- intense solar activity that can
disrupt modern life dramatically.

 

In Carrington's day, there were few electromechanical systems for intense
solar radiation to mess with. The new fangled telegraph systems suffered the
most. Solar-induced power surges knocked some operators from their chairs
and set fire to the paper rolls used to record dashes and dots. Fortunately,
no Carrington Effect has occurred since the whole world became electrified.
But scientists worry about what might happen when a real solar tsunami hits.

 

It is a real danger. In 2008, the National Academies released a report on
the "adverse effects of extreme space weather on modern technology -- power
grid outages, high-frequency communication blackouts. ..." Much of the
planet's energy and communications infrastructure is just too fragile to
weather a massive electromagnetic onslaught.

 

We need to devote a lot more effort to building up resistance to solar
tsunamis. Even if there is no intense solar burp in our lifetime, manmade
threats can deliver the same damage.

 

A high-altitude nuclear explosion can create an electromagnetic pulse that
mimics a solar tsunami, a fact validated in 2004 by the Commission to Assess
the Threat to the United States from electromagnetic pulse attack.

 

A massive EMP attack on the United States could produce almost unimaginable
devastation by wiping out essential infrastructure. Communications would
collapse, transportation would halt, and electrical power would disappear.
Not even a global humanitarian effort would be enough to keep hundreds of
millions of Americans from dying of starvation or exposure.

 

Nor would the catastrophe stop at our borders. Most of Canada would die,
too. Its infrastructure is integrated with the U.S. power grid. Without the
American economic engine, the world economy would quickly collapse. Much of
the world's intellectual property (half of it is in the United States) would
be lost as well. The Earth would likely recede into the "new" Dark Ages.

 

There's nothing we can do to prevent a solar tsunami, but thwarting a
nuclear missile attack is well within our capabilities. "Countering the EMP
Threat: The Role of Missile Defense," a recent report from the Independent
Working Group, offers some practical and readily achievable recommendations
and even outlines how we could implement a defense against a short-range
seaborne missile attack now.

 

We could take the danger of ballistic missile EMP attacks off the table by
building more robust long-range missile defenses. That would require beefing
up our domestic ground-based interceptors and dusting off an existing (but
currently shelved) plan to put ground-based interceptors in Europe.

 

Both the U.S.- and European-based interceptors are proven, cost-effective
systems that could defend us right now. Yet the Obama administration has
opted for a "phased and adaptive approach" --a strategy that may start to
give us useful capabilities around 2020 or so ... if everything goes right.

 

For the long term, the administration ought to be pushing space-based
missile defense, which can provide comprehensive, robust and very
cost-effective security against ballistic missile attack.

 

While an ounce of missile defense would be worth a pound of EMP cure, we
cannot ignore curative remedies either. Both public and private sectors need
to pay more attention to "hardening" truly vital infrastructure to make it
more resistant and resilient to natural and manmade threats.

 

It's dangerous to look directly at the sun. But it can be downright
catastrophic to avert our eyes from the very real risk of solar tsunami or
EMP attack.

 

 <http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/> FamilySecurityMatters.org
Contributing Editor James Jay Carafano, Ph.D., is a leading expert in
defense affaires, intelligence, military operations and strategy, and
homeland security at the Heritage Foundation.

 



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