On 22-Feb-2009, at 01:35, Mark Smith wrote:
> On Sun, Feb 22, 2009 at 5:47 AM, LuKreme <[email protected]> wrote:
>> So, I am 95% certain that the true probability is in the range of
>> 16.72% to 35.77% or so. So, my 'sense' that 19/78 is pretty close to
>> 25% is pretty much shit.
>
> The spread isn't that bad. If your suspicion is correct (and it might
> well be) that the actual "rate" is 1 in 4. This test tells you that
> both "1 in 5" and "1 in 3" must be close to being outliers (given a
> normal distribution about your value of 19/78).
Bit I have no reason to think the rate is exactly 1/4, 23.817234% is
perfectly possible since the mechanism is completely hidden inside the
bowels of a computer game. Still, at least I know how 'sure' the
number is, which is what I wanted in the first place :)
--
Clarke's Law: Sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable
from magic
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