----- Forwarded Message -----
From: robert searle <[email protected]>
To: P2 P Foundation mailing list <[email protected]>
Sent: Monday, 14 May 2012, 13:35
Subject: [P2P-F] Fw: [Arthakranti] ECONOMIC ALERT: IF YOU’RE NOT WORRIED
YET…YOU SHOULD BE
----- Forwarded Message -----
From: Narendra Khot <[email protected]>
To: Narendra Khot <[email protected]>
Sent: Monday, 14 May 2012, 7:46
Subject: [Arthakranti] ECONOMIC ALERT: IF YOU’RE NOT WORRIED YET…YOU SHOULD BE
Alarm call! Writer not known, but worth reading for those with any kind of
direct stake in the US.
Rgds
Naren
ECONOMIC ALERT: IF YOU’RE NOT WORRIED YET…YOU SHOULD BE
Posted on May 11, 2012 | 0 comments
For the past four years I have been covering the progression of the global
economic crisis with an emphasis on the debilitating effects it has had on the
American financial system. Only once before have I ever issued an economic
alert, and this was at the onset of the very first credit downgrade in U.S.
history by S&P. I do not take the word “alert” lightly. Since 2008 we have seen
a cycle of events that have severely weakened our country’s foundation, but
each event has then been followed by a lull, sometimes 4 to 6 months at a
stretch, which seems to disarm the public, drawing them back into apathy and
complacency. The calm moments before each passing storm give Americans a false
sense of hope that our capsized fiscal vessel will somehow right itself if we
just hold on a little longer…
I don’t have to tell most people within the Liberty Movement that this is not
going to happen. Unfortunately, there are many out there who do not share our
awareness of the situation. Debt implosions and currency devaluation NEVER
simply “fade away”; they are always followed by extreme social and political
strife that tends to sully the doorsteps of almost every individual and family.
The notion that we can coast through such a tempest unscathed is an insane
idea, filled with a dangerous potential for sour regrets.
There are some people who also believe that the private Federal Reserve with
the Treasury in tow has the ability to prolong the worst symptoms of the
collapse indefinitely, or at least, until they have long since kicked the
bucket and don’t have to worry about it anymore (the ‘pay-it forward to our
grandkids’ crowd) . I can say with 100% certainty that most of us will live to
see the climax of the breakdown, and that this breakdown is about to enter a
more precarious state before the end of this year. You can only stretch a
sun-boiled rubber band so far before it snaps completely, and America’s
financial elasticity has long been melted away.
A pummeling hailstorm of news items and international developments have made
the first half of 2012 almost impossible to track and analyze. The frequency at
which negative information has surfaced is almost dizzying. However, a pattern
and a recognizable motion are beginning to take shape, and, I believe, a loose
timeline is beginning to form.
At the end of January, I covered the incredible nosedive of the Baltic Dry
Index (a measure of global shipping rates that signals a fall in global demand)
to historic lows. I pointed out the tendency of stocks and the general economy
to crash around 8 months (sometimes a little longer) after the BDI makes such a
dramatic downturn. Mainstream analysts, of course, attributed the fall to an
“overproduction of ships”, which is the same exact excuse they used when the
BDI collapsed back in 2008 just before the derivatives bubble burst. It would
seem that the cable TV talking heads were wrong yet again, as the international
market facade quickly evaporates right in line with the BDI’s almost prophetic
knack for calling an economic derailment in advance.
Here are some of the most important reasons why every American should be
prepared for much harder days, especially before the end of 2012:
The European Union Is Officially Dead In The Water
Stick a fork in er’, the EU is done! We are talking about full scale
dismantlement, likely followed by a reformation of core nations and multiple
collapse scenarios of peripheral countries. The writing is all over the wall in
the wake of the latest election results in Greece and France, where, as
alternative researchers have been predicting for some time, the battle between
the government spending crowd and proponents of austerity has reached a fever
pitch.
The Greeks and the French are royally pissed over draconian cuts in public
programs and the destruction of pensions which have been a mainstay of their
economies for quite some time. They are also furious over being sold off like
collateral to the IMF and World Bank. Rightly so. Like the American taxpayer,
the taxpayers of floundering EU nations are wrongly being held responsible for
the financial mismanagement and fraud of their governments and global banks
which have remained untouched and unpunished for their trespasses. The problem
is, the voters of both countries are signing on to the
socialist/quasi-communist bandwagon in response. In Greece, the Left Coalition
Party, a splinter group of the traditional communist party, has now taken a
primary position of power:
I have no doubt that the elections of the EU are as manipulated by elitists as
they are here in the U.S., and I’m sure false paradigms abound. Have Europeans
forgotten that it was overt government spending that set them on the path to
calamity in the first place? Or, are they like Americans; just desperate for
any change in the ranks of leadership? One would think that they would take
note of the problems here in our country and realize that electing a socialist
to replace another socialist is no way out of economic hardship.
Former officials like Nicolas Sarkozy may have claimed to be distanced from the
socialist ideal, but, as with all globalist puppets, their actions did not
match their rhetoric, and they have always supported policies of centralization
and big government. The French and the Greeks have essentially replaced closet
collectivists with outspoken collectivists, and will see NO relief from the
crisis in the Euro-zone as a result of the political reordering. In fact, the
stage has now been set for a volatile chain of dominos. Germany, which is the
only economy left holding the EU together, has been unyielding on austerity
cuts. A conflict between France and Germany is now inevitable. Neither will
compromise their position, and I can see no other eventual result than a
reexamination and perhaps abandonment of the EU charter.
How does this affect America? Being that international banks and corporations
have forced our countries into interdependency through the engineered chicanery
of globalization, any collapse in Europe is going to strike hard around the
world, but the worst will hit the U.S. and China. Which is probably why China
is disengaging trade away from the U.S. and the EU and focusing on other
developing nations:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/08/us-china-economy-trade-idUSBRE84702N20120508
If you thought the Greek rollercoaster was a pain in the neck for investment
markets, just wait until the whole of the EU is in a shambles!
Spain is next in line, with a 25% official unemployment rate and a massive
black market economy forming. As I have been saying for years now, when
governments disrupt the financial survival of the people, they WILL form their
own alternatives, including black markets and barter markets. It is about
survival. The Spanish government does not care much for these alternatives,
though, and has now banned cash transactions over 2500 euros in a futile
attempt to squeeze taxes out of the populace through digitally tracked payment
methods:
http://thedailybell.com/3814/Spain-Bans-Cash
Another major concern for Americans is the fact that Europeans are inching
towards an abandonment of the dollar. Francois Hollande has openly called for
an end to the dollar’s world reserve status, and with a majority backing of the
French people, he could easily make this happen, at least where France is
concerned. All it takes is for a few key countries to publically and completely
drop the Greenback and the dollar’s reputation as a safe haven investment will
be quashed. This could very well happen before 2012 is over.
QE3 Is The End
Here is the bottom line; U.S. growth is a theater of shadows. There has been no
progress, no recovery, only the misrepresentation of statistics. Millions of
Americans have fallen off unemployment rolls because they have been jobless for
too long, which lowers the unemployment rate, but does not change the fact that
they are still without work. Durable goods orders are dropping like an
avalanche. U.S. credit has been lowered yet again by ratings agency Egan-Jones.
With China making bilateral trade deals in numerous countries on the condition
that the dollar be dropped as the primary purchasing mechanism, and with the EU
turning to economic mulch, the currency’s safety is nonexistent. Traditional
investors who cling to the idea that a falling Euro spells dollar strength will
be sorely disappointed when the currency is suddenly being rejected in
international currency markets.
The Federal Reserve has already stated that any signs of “relapse” into
recession (the recession that we never left) will be met with all options on
the table, including QE3:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/12/us-usa-fed-idUSBRE83B1KD20120412
I believe that QE3 will probably be announced this year (due in large part to
trauma from Europe), and, that this will trigger a mass movement by foreign
nations to drop the dollar as the world reserve. QE3 will be the straw that
broke the camel. How exactly this will play out socially and politically, I do
not know (I could take a good guess though). But, the technical results are
predictable. The Fed will respond to the lack of treasury purchases by ramping
up fiat printing in order to cover the ever increasing costs of the government
machine. The Greenback will immediately lose a large portion of its value, at
least in terms of imported goods, causing inflation in prices. Oil and energy
prices will skyrocket if OPEC follows suit (which they will, though the Saudis
may still honor dollars for a time). Doing any traditional business will become
nearly impossible, and price inflation will dominate the lives and the minds of
average unprepared citizens.
The amount of time that it will take for these difficulties to unfold is also
not clear. We are operating in uncharted territory, and dealing with a collapse
scenario on a truly planetary scale. My best advice is to assume that the
avalanche will move fast.
While markets in our country have seen only mild disruptions so far this year,
their solidity is predicated on a host of props and costume pieces, any one of
which could pull the rug out from under America’s suspension of disbelief if it
strays but a little from the illusion. As long as the dollar holds, stocks can
be infused with bailout juice through major banks. So can major companies and
even desperate state governments on the verge of bankruptcy. The Dow will
remain relatively friendly, and day traders and the public will remain happy.
As soon as the dollar comes into question, all bets are off…
Does This Mean Doom, Or Just Another Bad Day?
The real beginning of today’s collapse is tied to the events of 2008. The pace
of it has been deceptive, but also, in a way, it is a gift. Over the past four
years, I have personally seen the awakening of thousands of people that may
have never had the chance if the system had gone into full spectrum breakdown
right away. The question now is, how much longer can the U.S. wobble along on
one wheel? In my view, and from the evidence I see in markets at the moment,
not much longer.
It is hard to set aside any expectations that the next leg down will be easy to
digest for the populace. The reality of our predicament is starting to hit
home. All the tax return checks have been spent. The credit cards have been
maxed. The new cars have been sold off and traded in for ghetto-mobiles. The
good jobs have been replaced with Taco Bell slavery. A trip to see The Avengers
is now the family vacation. And, the distractions of reality TV just aren’t
buttering our bread anymore. It’s the little things at first that really signal
the financial mood of a society, as well as reveal the more vital and looming
issues just over the horizon.
All indicators suggest that this year will be unlike any other before. In 2008,
we saw the first trigger events for the collapse. In 2008/2009, we saw the
creation of the bailout culture, setting the stage for inflation and dollar
disintegration. In 2010, we saw the first bilateral trade deal cutting out the
dollar between China and Russia, which is now the template for trade deals all
over the globe. In 2011, we saw the first downgrade of the U.S. credit rating
and the crisis in the EU become epidemic. In 2012, I see not just another
difficulty to add to the mountain, but a culmination of all these detriments to
produce something entirely new; a vast and subversive realignment forcing many
of us to take a more aggressive stance in the fight for an economically and
socially free America.
Financial disasters have always been a convenient catalyst for a host of even
more frightening obstacles, including civil unrest, and blatant
totalitarianism. This is the cusp. It is one of those moments that people of
later generations read about in awe, and sometimes horror. The “doom” is not in
the event, but in the response. What we make of the days approaching determines
the darkness that they cast upon the future. It is a test. It is not something
to be dreaded. It is something to be seized upon, and dealt with, as great men
and women before us have done. At the very least, we know that it is coming.
That, in itself, could well seal our success…
Regards,
"Save the Country From Faulty Policies to Save Ourself and Our Future".
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