Dear Professor Cas,
Thank your very much Proressor Cas, we appreciate it very much. I will forward this email to our mailing list "Rantaunet" with the 1,300 members Minangkabau speakers of West Sumatran Minangkabau http://groups.yahoo.com/group/RantauNet/messages. While quite a few members spread all over the world but a great numbers of us are scattered in Indonesia (and at home in West Sumatra), Malaysia and Singapore. We're very watchful for our Home Villages and People.
Meanwhile we also have learned from your correspondence with Ms. Arlinta Christy Barus of Politeknik Informatika Del, Sitoluama, Laguboti, Toba Samosir, North Sumatra which also posted in our mailing list. I enclosed it below in this mail.
It's really nice to have reached you by this email. I'm wondering if you know of my colleague from the University of Califonria Santa Cruz, Professor Eli Silver, who is also a geologist. Last time I saw and talked to Professor Silver was during our fundraising activities at UCSC. He gave a presentation about the earthquake and tsunami in Acheh and I recited the prayer during that fundraising.
Best Regards, -- Sjamsir
At 09:01 AM 4/7/2005 +1000, Raymond Cas wrote:
Dear Sjamsir,
Don't be alarmed. I'm not sure what was reported in your media, but what I said to the media here was that if the magma chamber of the volcano were ready for an eruption, a major earthquake, for example along the Sumatran Fault Zone, could trigger an eruption. This is hypothetical, and there is no evidence that the required conditions exist at present. I'm afraid the media have exaggerated and misrepresented some of the things I said.
Ray Cas. ________________________________________ Professor Ray Cas Director, Australian Crustal Research Centre (ACRC), and Monash Volcanology Research Group (MONVOLC) School of Geosciences Monash University
Department address: School of Geosciences P.O Box 28E Monash University Victoria, 3800 Australia
Tel: 61 3 9905 4897 Fax: 61 3 9905 4903
Ray Cas Professor / HonoursM.Sc. Coordinator
Dear Professor Cas,
I found your email address from the homepage of Monas University.
Someone posted your warning regarding the possible volcanic eruption in Lake Toba, Indonesia. (In our Mailing List Rantaunet: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/RantauNet/messages) . Unfortunately I couldn't trace the real source of your warning. Since your original words might have been misinterpreted, especially about the time frame of your prediction, would you please inform us what's really have been said and where is the source of information we can trace?
The people in West Sumatra, especially along the West Coastal areas and the people of the City of Padang currently in the situation of very panic with the news of big earthquake that might strike the Mentawai or any other spot along the Sunda trench of western Sumatra and might follow by another big tsunami. This panic situation has been added by the recent second quake in Pulau Banyak (or sometimes has been refered to as Nias or Gunung Sitoli Earthquage). Anything said about the prediction of the coming earthquake or tsunami has become the source of panic. The predicted Toba quake might add to this high emotional chaos. Would you please help us to elaborate about your precidiction so we can share and help to ease this almost uncontrollable Sumatran emotion. Thank you.
Best Regards, -- Sjamsir Sjarif X___________________________________________Sjamsir Sjarif Indonesian Translator, Interpreter, and Cultural Consultant 335 Gault St. #1, Santa Cruz, CA 95062, USA Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Tel. (831)-426-1333 Fax (831)426-8907 http://www.usindo.net/hambo Member of: ATA, American Translators Association http://www.atanet.org/ NCTA, Northern California Translators Association http://www.ncta.org/ IPA, Indonesian Professional Association http://www.ipanet.org/ =======================================================38133 From: "M. Syahreza" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Date: Wed Apr 6, 2005 7:46am Subject: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sumatera lagi bergerak
Subject: FW: Sumatra sedang 'bergerak' > Importance: High > > Sabtu, 02 April 2005 NASIONAL > Pakar Peringatkan Letusan Gunung Api di Danau Toba > SYDNEY - Ketika Indonesia sedang berjuang keras mengevakuasi para
> korban gempa di Pulau Nias, seorang pakar Australia memperingatkan bahwa > wilayah Sumatera bakal diguncang letusan gunung berapi sangat dahsyat.
> Skala bencana ledakan ''super volcano'' itu diperkirakan jauh lebih > besar daripada tsunami 26 Desember dan gempa 28 Maret lalu. Profesor Ray > Cas dari Fakultas Ilmu Bumi Monash University mengatakan, letusan gunung > berapi paling dahsyat itu bakal terjadi di Danau Toba, Sumatera Utara. > > Dia mengatakan kemarin, Danau Toba terletak di jalur patahan di > bagian tengah Pulau Sumatera. Sejumlah ahli seismologi juga mengatakan, > gempa besar ketiga mungkin akan mengguncang wilayah tersebut, menyusul
> gempa 9,0 skala Richter pada 26 Desember dan 8,7 skala Richter pada 28
> Maret lalu. > > Letusan-letusan vulkano besar yang berpotensi menewaskan jutaan > orang dan menimbulkan kerusakan hebat akan terjadi setelah satu ledakan > pertama. Menurut Cas, super volcano itu hanya menunggu waktu. Dia > menambahkan ledakan tersebut merupakan ancaman terbesar bagi planet ini > sebab, letusan hebat itu bisa menyebabkan bencana terbesar dalam sejarah > modern. ''Super volcano pasti meledak,'' kata Cas. ''Ledakan itu terjadi > setiap 50 atau 1.000 tahun. Cepat atau lambat, salah satu letusan > dahsyat itu akan mengguncang planet ini.' Menurutnya, ledakan-ledakan > hebat gunung berapi pernah terjadi di Italia, Selandia Baru, Amerika > Selatan, AS, dan Indonesia. > > Dalam Waktu Dekat > Ledakan terbesar berlangsung di Danau Toba, yang telah menciptakan > kawah berdiameter 90 kilometer. Menurut Prof Cas, siklus ledakan hebat
> 2.000 tahunan telah tiba waktunya. Para pakar vulkanologi di seluruh > dunia sedang mengamati dan menunggu terjadinya bencana besar dalam waktu > dekat. Menurut Cas, ledakan besar terakhir yang secara ilmiah disebut > caldera terjadi 2.000 tahun lalu di Selandia Baru. > > Dia mengatakan, ledakan-ledakan itu begitu kuat sehingga sejumlah
> besar bebatuan dan debu terlontar ke atmosfer. Ada risiko ledakan itu > menimbulkan tsunami karena guncangan vulkanik melanda lautan. > ''Kemungkinan korban tewas bisa mencapai ratusan ribu sampai jutaan. Ada > implikasi serius terhadap iklim, cuaca, dan keberlangsungan produksi > pangan,'' kata dia. > > Dia menambahkan, meski ada ancaman dalam waktu dekat, > negara-negara sekitar tampaknya belum siap. ''Masalah terbesar adalah,
> banyak gunung berapi yang berpotensi meletus itu mungkin tidak dipantau > dengan semestinya. Tentu saja, kita harus belajar dari bencana tsunami > Desember lalu,'' kata dia. > > Gempa-gempa di lepas pantai Aceh barat dan Pulau Nias terjadi di > sepanjang jalur patahan lepas pantai barat Sumatera. Gempa-gempa itu > menciptakan tekanan seismologis yang dapat mempercepat letusan gunung > berapi. > > Cas mengatakan, letusan vulkano hebat terjadi di Danau Toba > sekitar 73.000 tahun lalu. Skala ledakannya begitu besar sehingga > mengubah iklim dunia. ''Ledakan tersebut mengakibatkan tersemburnya > 1.000 kilometer kubik debu dan bebatuan ke atmosfer. Sebagian besar debu > itu menghalangi sinar matahari. Akibatnya, dunia memasuki zaman es,'' > kata dia. > > Ilmuwan itu mengatakan super volcano mencerminkan potensi bahaya > terbesar dari Bumi. ''Ancaman dahsyat lainnya berasal dari angkasa luar, > yakni jatuhnya asteroid besar,'' tambahnya.(yahoo-afp-ben-46)
38176 From: "Erwin" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Date: Thu Apr 7, 2005 8:37am Subject: Re: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sumatera lagi bergerak
Ini ada surat-menyurat dengan Prof. Ray Cas tentang super volcano. Semoga bisa menenangkan.
erwin >----- Forwarded message from [EMAIL PROTECTED] ----- > Date: Wed, 6 Apr 2005 07:00:30 +0700 > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >Subject: [Dosen-Del] Fwd: Re: URGENT: LAKE TOBA EXPLOTION > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > >Dear All, > >Below are some emails from Prof Ray Cas regarding the eruption news. Hope >the information is useful for us. Thank you. > >Best Regards, >Arlinta Christy Barus > >----- Forwarded message from Raymond Cas <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> ----- > Date: Wed, 06 Apr 2005 08:21:03 +1000 > From: Raymond Cas <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >Reply-To: Raymond Cas <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >Subject: Re: URGENT: LAKE TOBA EXPLOTION > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > >Dear Arlinta, > >The obvious signs would be increased rate of gas release from gas >fumaroles, new gas fumaroles forming, high levels of low intensity >earthquakes and small volcanic explosions. Since none of these indicators >currently exist at Lake Toba, there is no need for concern. > >Ray Cas. >________________________________________ >Professor Ray Cas >Director, Australian Crustal Research Centre (ACRC), and >Monash Volcanology Research Group (MONVOLC) >School of Geosciences >Monash University > >Department address: >School of Geosciences >P.O Box 28E >Monash University >Victoria, 3800 >Australia > >Tel: 61 3 9905 4897 >Fax: 61 3 9905 4903 > >----- Original Message ----- >From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >Date: Tuesday, April 5, 2005 7:42 pm >Subject: Re: URGENT: LAKE TOBA EXPLOTION > >Dear Prof Cas, > >I am so glad and relieved recieving your reply. As you told before, there >is no evidence that the required conditions exist at present. However, >could you please let me know the signs when the eruption will happen so >people arround lake toba still have time to safe their lives ? >Looking forward to your response. Thnak you very much. > >Sincerely Yours, > >Arlinta Christy Barus >Politeknik Informatika Del >Sitoluama, Laguboti, Toba Samosir, Sumut. >Telp. 021 5455477; 0632 331234 >Fax. 0632 331116 >E-mail : [EMAIL PROTECTED] ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] ><<http://www.del.ac.id>http://www.del.ac.id>http://www.del.ac.id > >Quoting Raymond Cas <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: > >Dear Arlinta, > >Do not be alarmed. I'm not sure what was reported in your media, but what > >I said to the media here was that if the magma chamber of the >volcano were ready for an eruption, a major earthquake, for example along >the Sumatran Fault Zone, could trigger an eruption. This is >hypothetical, and there is no evidence that the required conditions exist > >at present. > >Ray Cas. >________________________________________ >Professor Ray Cas >Director, Australian Crustal Research Centre (ACRC), and >Monash Volcanology Research Group (MONVOLC) >School of Geosciences >Monash University > >Department address: >School of Geosciences >P.O Box 28E >Monash University >Victoria, 3800 >Australia > >Tel: 61 3 9905 4897 >Fax: 61 3 9905 4903 > >----- Original Message ----- >From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >Date: Tuesday, April 5, 2005 5:23 pm >Subject: URGENT: LAKE TOBA EXPLOTION > >Dear Prof Ray Cas, > >I've just read your article in a newspaper Suara Merdeka regarding your >prediction about the explotion of the Lake Toba. Since I live >in a village right at the southern edge of the Lake Toba, I'd like to know > >further about it. If you do not mind, could you please tell me what would >be >the signs indicating that the erruption will occur ? I'd like to thank >you in advance for your great help and attention. > >Sincerely Yours, > >Arlinta Christy Barus >Politeknik Informatika Del >Sitoluama, Laguboti, Toba Samosir, Sumut. >Telp. 021 5455477; 0632 331234 >Fax. 0632 331116 >E-mail : [EMAIL PROTECTED] ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] ><<http://www.del.ac.id>http://www.del.ac.id>http://www.del.ac.id
----- Original Message ----- From: "Sjamsir Sjarif" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Lapau" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Cc: "Biaro" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; "Slamet Rino" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; "adyan" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; "Desmawati Radjab, Desmawati Radjab" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; "Dick Tito" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; "R. D. Lukman" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; "Dedeh Kurniasih" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; "Bandaro" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Thursday, April 07, 2005 3:21 AM Subject: Re: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sumatera lagi bergerak
> Maa Rang Lapau nan Basamo, > > Iyo angku Adyan. Barito-barito kritis dan mengerikan saroman ko kalau indak > jaleh bana sumbernyo sarancaknyo awak bahati-hati manarimonyo, apolai > mamporowaikkannyo.
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