-----Original Message-----
From: Indo Energy
Sent: 20 Mei 2004 7:42
To: indoenergy
Subject:Oil gains as stockpiles fall


Oil gains as stockpiles fall
 
By ERIN POOLEY
Globe and Mail update 
 
Crude oil prices rose Wednesday after the U.S.
Department of Energy said gasoline inventories rose
less than expected last week and oil stockpiles
declined, bolstering concern that U.S. consumption
continues to outstrip supply.

According to the Department of Energy's weekly report
released at 10:30 a.m. EDT, gasoline inventories
increased 1.2 million barrels last week to 203.7
million barrels, short of the 1.5 million barrels
analysts in a Bloomberg survey had been expecting.
Crude oil inventories fell 1.1 million barrels to
298.9 million barrels.

The contract for light sweet crude for July delivery
rose 96 cents or 2.04 per cent to $41.50 (U.S.) a
barrel at close. Oil prices reached a record high
Monday, surging to $41.55 (U.S.) a barrel, the highest settlement in the
21-year history of the New York contract.

Gasoline for June delivery jumped 6.34 cents or 4.6
per cent to $1.4503 a gallon, the highest closing
price since the contract started in 1984. 

Analysts are predicting that inflation worries,
violence in the Middle East and strong demand from
major oil consumers such as the United States and
China will keep crude above $40 (U.S.) a barrel until September.

"The reason we're at $40 to start with is largely
supply-demand driven," said Don Short, an oil and gas
analyst for Raymond James Ltd. in Calgary.

"The main thing right now is you've got a pretty tight supply-demand
balance, and you've got external risks in terms of potential for supply
disruption - strikes and terrorist events, or geo-political concerns -
which give you the potential for volatility on the upside."

Mr. Short said he thinks crude prices will stay
between $38 to $42 a barrel for the rest of this year
and into 2005, with crude oil and gasoline prices
remaining high as long as a reasonable amount of
economic growth and demand continues.

"Economies don't turn on a dime, and they have some
pretty good momentum to them right now," he said.

"When you see the global economies start to roll over
a little bit, that's going to be the catalyst for some
weakness on the crude oil price."

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries are slated to hold an informal meeting this
weekend in Amsterdam during the International Energy
Forum, after Saudi Arabia proposed that the oil cartel
raise output by 1.5 million barrels a day to ease
price pressures.

There is some concern that the suggested boost to
output will have little impact on record high crude
prices. OPEC is already producing 2 million barrels a
day more than its formal quota of 23.5 million a day
and has room to pump more, Indonesia's energy minister
Purnomo Yusgiantoro told reporters in London.

"We are producing 85 to 90 per cent of capacity," he
said. "We have enough capacity to assure the market
with oil supply."

Even so, Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanghaneh
said Wednesday that an increase in OPEC's output would
be a "positive sign" to consumer countries.

The oil-exporting cartel's next formal meeting is set
for June 3 in Beirut, Lebanon.

Britain will also urge OPEC oil producers to increase production to try
to bring down high prices, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon
Brown said Wednesday.

In Canada, oil and gas stocks continue to lag behind
crude's rise as equity investors worry that current
record highs for crude may be unsustainable and won't
translate into higher profits in coming quarters.

In Toronto, the S&P/TSX index of energy stocks, which
includes 27 companies such as Petro-Canada and
Talisman Energy Inc., was little changed, down 1.37
points at 165.84. So far this year, the index is up
6.5 per cent, compared with a gain of 27.7 per cent
for the price of crude.

Canadian oil and gas companies have seen their sales
and earnings decline in recent quarters due to the
strength of the Canadian dollar, which diminishes the
value of U.S. dollar-denominated sales when they are
brought home and translated back into loonies.

With a report from Erin Conway-Smith 
 



        
                
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