Sorry, but I just can't get excited by something that will happen in a couple of hundred years, let along a "few hundred thousand years." In fact, in a few 10's of years it may not matter much anymore ANYhow, and inside 50 years, most of US will be dead, so...
Thanks for the reminder on the Crystal Spheres. It's been a long time since I've read that one... keith whaley Dag T wrote: > > På søndag, 1. juni 2003, kl. 19:17, skrev Keith Whaley: > > > Nick Zentena wrote: > >> > >> On June 1, 2003 10:27 am, Steve Desjardins wrote: > >>> Sci. Am had a special section on this a while back. (July 2000) My > >>> favorite arguemnt involves assuming that a tehcnoogocial species > >>> arises, > >>> sends one colony ship out at 0.1 c, it takes 400 years for that > >>> colonoy > >>> to send out another ship, etc. Making these estimates, the entire > >>> galaxy should be colonized in about 5 million years, whihc is a > >>> blink of > >>> the eye in cosmic terms. So where are they? > > > > Merely mathematically speaking, that's only 12,500 forays into the > > reaches of the galaxy. > > Way too easy to get lost, or from their viewpoint, way to easy to miss > > such a miniscule number of visitors! > > What is YOUR definition of "colonizing the galaxy?" Maybe I missed > > something. > > > > Dump a thousand tons of sand into the ocean. Once the murkiness > > disappears, where's your sand? > > Even bright flourescent orange sand, what are the chances for your ever > > finding such a grain? > > Seems to me it would take a LOT more than a 5 million year period. > > There´s another scenario that would take this short time, or shorter. > Why send people? Send probes! > > Send probes that can copy themselves when they land on a planet with > the right materials. It´s technologically possible for us now or a > short time from now, so why not a more advanced civilization. Then > make all of them report to the same planet. Even if each probe only > make two successful copies in each ten years the galaxy will be flooded > by then within a few hundred thousand years.... > >>> You then get into "intelligent but no tech", deliberately avoiding > >>> us, etc. A good read if you like this stuff. > > I guess I'll have to visit our local library to see if I can take out > > a copy... > > Try reading a few short stories and novels by David Brin, sci fi > author, physicist and former NASA employee (I think he´s been involved > with the SETI project - the search for extra terrestrial intelligence). > The short story "The Crystal Spheres" discusses this problem, and has > a very odd solution to it. > > DagT
