Just an FYI... Tom C. ----- Original Message ----- From: "STD Listserver" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Tuesday, April 10, 2001 6:13 AM Subject: AURORA WARNING UPDATE: Mid-Latitude Auroral Activity Warning - 10 Apr > /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ > > MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING > > UPDATED: 11:45 UTC, 10 APRIL 2001 > > /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ > > *** POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS *** > > MAJOR X2.2/3B SOLAR FLARE AND CME PROMPTS ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST > > > VALID BEGINNING AT: 21:00 UTC ON 10 APRIL > VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 13 APRIL > > HIGH RISK PERIOD: 11 - 12 APRIL (UTC DAYS) > MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 11 - 13 APRIL > > PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 12, 60, 50, 15 (10 APRIL - 13 APRIL) > > POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH > > POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS > MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS > > ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: PRIOR TO AND NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT > > EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT, HIGH AFTER MOONRISE > > OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD > > AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... > > NORTHERN TO POSSIBLY CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO NEVADA TO NORTHERN ARIZONA TO > NEW MEXICO TO NORTHERN TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO > MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA TO GEORGIA TO SOUTH CAROLINA (*IF* AND *ONLY IF* > FAVORABLE SOLAR WIND CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER NORTH AMERICA PRIOR TO > MOONRISE). A MORE REALISTIC EXPECTATION MAY BE A LINE ROUGHLY NORTH OF > OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO SOUTHERN WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO IOWA TO > ILLINOIS TO INDIANA TO KENTUCKY TO WEST VERGINIA TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA. > > > ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... > > NORTHERN SPAIN TO SOUTHERN FRANCE TO NORTHERN ITALY TO SLOVENIA TO > NORTHERN CROATIA TO NORTHERN YUGOSLAVIA TO ROMANIA TO SOUTHERN UKRAINE TO > SOUTH-WESTERN RUSSIA APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM VORONEZH TO > SARANSK TO KAZAN TO PERM AND EAST-CENTRAL RUSSIA (*IF* AND *ONLY IF* > FAVORABLE SOLAR WIND CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER EUROPE AND RUSSIA PRIOR TO > MOONRISE). A MORE REALISTIC EXPECTATION MAY BE A LINE ROUGHLY NORTH OF > NORTHERN FRANCE TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL POLAND TO SOUTHERN > BELARUS TO SOUTH OF MOSCOW TO KIROV TO OTHER NORTHERN TO NORTH-CENTRAL > RUSSIAN REGIONS. > > SYNOPSIS... > > Addendum: > > A major class X2.2/3B solar flare was observed at 05:27 UTC on 10 > April. Although there was no complementary SOHO data to analyze > at the time of this addendum, observed features suggest this event > may have been associated with a halo CME travelling at a velocity > up to perhaps twice the velocity of the CME observed on 09 April. If > this holds true, a major to severe auroral storm may develop during > the mid to late UTC hours of 11 April following the arrival of this > second major disturbance (sometime near or after 06:00 to 15:00 UTC on > 11 April, or 2 am to 11 am EDT on 11 April). These are preliminary > times and may be adjusted when more data becomes available. Major to > severe auroral storming is still contingent upon favorable solar wind > conditions behind the shock front of the disturbance as well as > observing the intense phase of activity prior to moonrise. > > > In addition to the above, a heavily Earth-directed and fairly high > velocity coronal mass ejection was observed erupting from the Sun in > association with a major class M7.9 solar x-ray flare at 15:34 UTC on 09 > April. > > Impact of this disturbance is expected to occur sometime during the > early UTC day of 11 April followed some hours later by the potentially larger > impact of the X-class flare associated CME. > > Observers are encouraged to watch the skies during the nights of 11 and > 12 April for possible activity. Moonrise occurs near local midnight over most > regions on these dates. As a result, optimal observing conditions will occur > after the sun sets and before the moon rises. The near-full phase of the > rising moon will heavily drown out the fainter signatures of auroral > activity. > > Additional Earth-directed coronal mass ejections are possible over the > next several days. > > This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 13 April. It > will then be updated or allowed to expire. > > For Real-Time News and Discussions with Experienced Aurora Photographers: > http://www.spacew.com/irc > and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora) > > > WE HAVE A DISCUSSION FORUM FOR AURORA ENTHUSIASTS AVAILABLE AT: > http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html > > > PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO: > http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html > > * OR * > > Use the STD AURORA MONITOR Software to monitor conditions and > report sightings. It is available at: > http://www.spacew.com/aurora > > > ** End of Warning ** > - This message is from the Pentax-Discuss Mail List. To unsubscribe, go to http://www.pdml.net and follow the directions. 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