In my opinion, the *istD is too new (what is it about a 1.5 yr old?) to make judgements regarding its long term reliabiliy. ( sorry for stating the obvious, duh).
While some have probably already been worked real hard in terms of number of exposures, there is always the issue of aging of components and it will take a more time to know for sure how good or bad the long term reliability will be because its no different than any other camera in that regard, and only time will tell. JCO