as i see it, there are five market segments for Pentax DSLRs:
1) new SLR buyers who have never owned any SLR before - i think this market
is negligible, even though John recently bought one this way and found his
way here
2) Pentax film SLR owners who want to go digital - most of us here,
especially because many in this group have a large investment in Pentax
lenses they want to continue to use.
3) non-Pentax film SLR owners who are interested in going digital and have
no requirement to be compatible with their older equipment - Canon and Nikon
have mindshare and Pentax doesn't. it takes really knowledgeable sales
people and buyers with an open mind to move them to a Pentax DSLR.
4) current Pentax DSLR owners who want an upgrade to a more capable body
because they know that they need the capability and that other vendors offer
it, so it exists somewhere. that's me, Rob, and some others here.
5) non-Pentax DSLR owners who want a Pentax instead - sorry, but i think
Godfrey is probably the only such person that will ever exist.
Pentax offers the entry level *istDL and *istDS to groups 1 and 3, and some
of 2. the *istD covers most of group 2. according to Pål, the Pentax 645D
meets the needs of group 4 and some of group 2.
the *istDL and *istDS are the bottom of the food chain and both sell for
very little and make very little. of the three groups that buy these two,
most come from group 2 and not 1 and 3. posing the 645D as the answer to
group 4 is a non-starter. if someone has to replace all their lenses, buying
a body that will cost at best the same as a Canon 1DsMk2 and probably over
10K, what is the advantage? the difference between 16 and 18 megapixels
isn't worth mentioning, especially because the well sizes are not too
different in size. i can use 645 lenses on my *istD, but what is the point?
if i have to have two mostly incompatible camera systems, why stay with
Pentax? if you already have a raft of 645 lenses, there isn't much choice,
but there aren't going to be a lot of people like that left in another
year's time.
it's about time Pentax realizes that most of its market is current Pentax
SLR owners, many with film bodies that they have used for years, and
covering the entire range from casual to pro. the entry level DSLR bodies
cover the bottom third. the *istD sort of covers the middle, but it's
starting to get long in the tooth and most certainly doesn't have certain
capabilities like a bigger frame buffer and smarter RAW handling that even
the lower end bodies have. otherwise, it's a capable mid-range camera.
Pentax doesn't have a K-mount higher end camera, something in the $3-5K
range. without one, people from the film side of things shooting at the
upper end of the requirements and the ones who bought the *istD because it
was the only game in town have no place to go.
we're talking 10-14 megapixels, higher frame rate (by a little), larger
buffer (by a lot), and something like antishake or IS. yet those people and
that body are the things that influence other purchasers, even if they are
only loyal Pentax users, to stay with Pentax and buy into the system because
they know that there is a future and there is an upgrade if they need it.
Pentax has not signaled in any way that it has a coherent, even if hidden,
picture of the future of its camera lineup. announcing the 645D to me was
representing a huge diversion of effort for a company not making much money
and knowing that developing such a system is not cheap, even if only one
more lens needs to be designed. then they announce early retirement
incentives for 150 people this year, then an additional 150 next year, then
that they feel the imaging products division is too large and transfer 100
people from the imaging products division to the other divisions.
as a company, the health care and optical components divisions are quite
healthy. they are the ones making money and subsidizing the imaging products
division's continuing losses. that's OK if the losses are forecast for the
short term as the company invests in some infrastructure to bring about a
turnaround, but Pentax continues to forecast losses for the division that
don't decrease, and that total sales will not increase either. also, because
of the losses, there isn't a lot of money to invest in infrastructure in the
first place. the only way to bring about profits is to substantially cut
costs, and even in Japan, that means layoffs and cutting back, or continuing
with losses year after year because pride means that it's not possible to
shut the camera business down, or giving up and closing down the division or
selling it off. Pentax is a business, whether anyone here admits it or not,
and at some point, hanging on to something that lowers the bottom line
without an end in sight is something to get rid of. there's no quick fix,
only hard choices, and Pentax seems to think it is playing a game with no
time limit.
Herb...
----- Original Message -----
From: "Tom C" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <pentax-discuss@pdml.net>
Sent: Tuesday, July 19, 2005 2:06 PM
Subject: Re: Pentax Profits Fall 42%
I personally don't know. I do know for myself, having two Pentax P&S in
the family is plenty, and that I'm not in the least interested in any DSLR
that's a step down from the D. So Pentax can either attract new first
time customers with low prices, or retain an existing user base by
releasing 'improved' higher end models. Maybe they should have been doing
some of both.
When an arguably smaller player in the field sees their profits decline by
almost half, when they have been persuing a business plan that was
*designed* to *make* money, when they are apparently just now reaching a
conclusion that many of us had reached earlier, it makes us little guys
wonder about the wisom of future "investments" in the system and the long
or even short term viability of the brand. It also can effect
availability of third party products. For instance, do I purchase a $1000
50-500 Sigma zoom in Pentax mount or do I choose the opportunity to try a
differnet brand?
I don't think Herb (or myself) is saying the sky is falling. We're simpy
looking up and wondering how long it can keep hanging up there.
