On Wed, 01 Nov 2006 22:26:38 -0000, John Francis <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> On Wed, Nov 01, 2006 at 09:12:22PM -0000, Bob W wrote: >> Your wise neurosurgeon might care to reflect on this: >> (http://www.cyclecraft.co.uk/digest/effectiveness.pdf) >> >> "... the average distance cycled per person in the UK each year is >> only 62 km42 (and in the Netherlands only 850 km43), so the average >> cyclist would expect a serious injury only once in more than 80 >> lifetimes. > > That would only be true if the likelihood of accident was directly > proportional to distance travelled, which is a questionable assumption. > > Compare this, for example, to the equally often-quoted figure that > 50% of all automobile accidents occur within 1.5 miles of the home. > If this is true, and if the probability of an accident is directly > proportional to the length of the journey, then we are forced to the > conclusion that the average journey in an automobile is three miles. > This is plainly ridiculous, so one of the underlying assumptions > must be wrong. I believe that in the UK the average car journey isn't much more than 3 miles. All those mums who drive their kids half a mile to school, and then a quarter of a mile to the supermarket. It's why they're so fat. Of course, it's different in America. Your suburbs are much larger. John -- Using Opera's revolutionary e-mail client: http://www.opera.com/m2/ -- PDML Pentax-Discuss Mail List PDML@pdml.net http://pdml.net/mailman/listinfo/pdml_pdml.net
