Darren, I think you are assuming that the 645D is an older, lower cost, less 
featured, lower resolution medium format camera which cannot compare to the 
645Z or the K-1. Well, maybe. But as you note, the CMOS vs CCD gives the 645D a 
big advantage for some. Does the added resolution, added live view, and a few 
other upgrades on the 645Z really diminish the value of the 645D as a solid 
option for portrait and landscape photographers? If you buy that that is the 
ecological niche that the 645D occupies, then I see virtually no overlap 
between markets for the 645D and the K-1. I think the 645D will continue in the 
product lineup. The price will slide down, but it will attract its own buyers 
without scavenging from the K-1.

[crystalBall]

Give it six months to 30 months and we will have a 645Zii. Added in-body SR, 
improved AF, built-in GPS and Wi-Fi. Maybe even Astrotracer. All adapted and 
carried over from the K-1. Then you will see a bit of a shake-up as the 645D 
gracefully retires, the 645Z becomes the lesser of two MF cameras, and the 
K-1ii continues to occupy its own FF K-mount niche.

[/crystalBall]

stan

> On Mar 13, 2016, at 6:52 PM, Darren Addy <pixelsmi...@gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> Well, time will tell whether my suspicions are right or not. It would
> be rather narrow to think that the only audience for the camera are
> people who previously owned Pentax medium format equipment and still
> have lenses. I've seen a lot of discussions about how you can get a
> body and a nice selection of lenses for only about $900 more. These
> are people who are starting at zero for Pentax 645 equipment.
> 
> Also regarding its sensor, some people feel that there is a quality to
> the CCD that is lacking in the CMOS, so they consider that  a *plus*.
> 
> Again, much is going to depend on the kind of photography that one
> does and how the Real Life output of the K-1 looks. I imagine that the
> K-1 sensor is not going to tolerate lower quality FF lenses well, so
> much will depend upon the optics that are being put on the front of
> it.
> 
> On Sun, Mar 13, 2016 at 12:07 PM, P.J. Alling
> <webstertwenty...@gmail.com> wrote:
>> I don't think that 645D is effected at all by the K-1.  No one invested in
>> 645 lenses will be dropping the system because of a FF K mount, they'll be
>> getting a 645z, and if they do decide that they want 35mm performance and
>> think that they can only afford one system the Canon EOS 5Ds is a lot more
>> attractive.
>> 
>> The problem with the 645D is it's an aging platform, it's sensor is out
>> dated, it's resolution is now on the low side of medium format and probably
>> the only reason that it hasn't been marked as discontinued is that Ricoh
>> doesn't want to cut the legs out from under any retailers with new old
>> stock.
>> 
>> It's major reason for being is that if someone perceives that they need
>> medium format look in their output it's the least expensive option for
>> achieving it, as it's selling new at a considerable discount over it's
>> original price.
>> 
>> On 3/13/2016 8:41 AM, Darren Addy wrote:
>>> 
>>> I expected the camera to be most affected by the K-1 announcement
>>> would be the 645d. (I'm interested to see IQ comparisons between the
>>> two once the K-1 is shipping). On the surface the K-1 would seem to
>>> have a LOT more going for it, features-wise, while the 645d maintains
>>> that larger sensor and 4 more MP.
>>> 
>>> Looking at SOLD items only, it appears that in January (before the K-1
>>> announcement) there were 15 645d sold on eBay U.S. (including 1 from
>>> international seller). In February, there were only 5 sold (including
>>> 1 from international seller). So far, nearly halfway through March,
>>> there have been 0 sold.
>>> 
>>> I expect that part of this phenomenon is that 645d sellers are still
>>> going to try to get pre-K-1-announcement *prices* for a while, when
>>> the reality is that they are probably going to have to be much closer
>>> to the K-1 price to get anyone to bite now.
>>> 
>>> There is a used one on Amazon (from a reputable seller) for $2500
>>> right now, and it will be interesting so see how low sellers will have
>>> to go to move them.
>>> 
>>> This should exert *some* downward price pressure on the 645z also,
>>> although the 645z still maintains a big MP advantage over the K-1.
>>> 
>> 
>> 
>> --
>> I don't want to achieve immortality through my work; I want to achieve
>> immortality through not dying.
>> -- Woody Allen
>> 
>> 
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