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Global warming a security risk
By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer
Sun Apr 15, 8:48 AM ET

Global warming poses a "serious threat to America's national security"
with terrorism worsening and the U.S. will likely be dragged into fights
over water and other shortages, top retired military leaders warn in a new
report.

Joining calls already made by scientists and environmental activists, the
retired U.S. military leaders, including the former Army chief of staff
and President Bush's former chief Middle East peace negotiator, called on
the U.S. government to make major cuts in emissions of gases that cause
global warming.

The report warned that in the next 30 to 40 years there will be wars over
water, increased hunger instability from worsening disease and rising sea
levels and global warming-induced refugees. "The chaos that results can be
an incubator of civil strife, genocide and the growth of terrorism," the
35-page report predicted.

"Climate change exacerbates already unstable situations," former U.S. Army
chief of staff Gordon Sullivan told Associated Press Radio. "Everybody
needs to start paying attention to what's going on. I don't think this is
a particularly hard sell in the Pentagon. ... We're paying attention to
what those security implications are."

Gen. Anthony "Tony" Zinni, Bush's former Middle East envoy, said in the
report: "It's not hard to make the connection between climate change and
instability, or climate change and terrorism."

The report was issued by the Alexandria, Va.-based, national security
think-tank The CNA Corporation and was written by six retired admirals and
five retired generals. They warned of a future of rampant disease, water
shortages and flooding that will make already dicey areas — such as the
Middle East, Asia and Africa — even worse.

"Weakened and failing governments, with an already thin margin for
survival, foster the conditions for internal conflicts, extremism and
movement toward increased authoritarianism and radical ideologies," the
report said. "The U.S. will be drawn more frequently into these
situations."

In a veiled reference to Bush's refusal to join an international treaty to
cut greenhouse gas emissions, the report said the U.S. government "must
become a more constructive partner" with other nations to fight global
warming and cope with its consequences.

The Bush administration has declined mandatory emission cuts in favor of
voluntary methods. Other nations have committed to required reductions
that kick in within a few years.

"We will pay for this one way or another," wrote Zinni, former commander
of U.S. Central Command. "We will pay to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
today, and we'll have to take an economic hit of some kind. Or we will pay
the price later in military terms. And that will involve human lives.
There will be a human toll."

Top climate scientists said the report makes sense and increased national
security risk is a legitimate global warming side-effect.

The report is "pretty impressive," but may be too alarmist because it may
take longer than 30 years for some of these things to happen, said
Stanford scientist Terry Root, a co-author of this month's international
scientific report on the effects of global warming on life on Earth.

But the instability will happen sometime, Root agreed.

"We're going to have a war over water," Root said. "There's just not going
to be enough water around for us to have for us to need to live with and
to provide for the natural environment."

University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver said the military
officers were smart to highlight the issue of refugees who flee unstable
areas because of global warming.

"There will be tens of millions of people migrating, where are we going to
put them?" Weaver said.

Weaver said that over the past years, scientists, who by nature are
cautious, have been attacked by conservative activists when warning about
climate change. This shows that it's not a liberal-conservative issue,
Weaver said.

___

On the Net:

The CNA Corporation: http://cna.org/
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