Kondratiev long wave models take many forms.
The most popular are those emphasizing a technological
innovations story, e.g. Joseph Schumpeter, _Business
Cycles_, 1939; Gerhard Mensch, _The Technological Stalemate_,
1975; Richard Goodwin, "The Economy as an Evolutionary
Pulsator," _Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization_,
1986, and Andrew Tylecote, "History as a Forecasting Tool:
The future of the European economy in a long wave/long cycle
perspective," _Review of Political Economy_, 1993;
Other approaches include a class struggle theory, e.g.
Leon Trotsky, "The Curve of Capitalist Development," (1923)
in _Problems of Everyday Life_, 1973; Ernest Mandel, _Long
Waves of Capitalist Development_, 1980;
a labor shortage theory, e.g. C. Freeman, J. Clark, and
L. Soete, _Unemployment and technical innovation: A study
of long waves and economic development_, 1982; K.B.T. Thio,
"On simultaneous explanation of long and medium-term
employment cycles," _De Economist_, 1991;
an energy-raw materials shortage theory, e.g. W.W. Rostow,
"Kondratieff, Schumpeter and Kuznets: Trend Periods Revisited,"
_Journal of Economic History_, 1975; George F. Ray, "Energy and
the Long Cycles," _Energy Economics_, 1983;
a capital self-ordering model, e.g. Jay W. Forrester, "Growth
Cycles," _De Economist_, 1977; John D. Sterman, "A behavioral
model of the economic long wave," _Journal of Economic Behavior
and Organization_, 1985;
a socialist investment wave model, e.g. J.B. Rosser and M.V.
Rosser, "Long Wave Chaos and Systemic Economic Transformation,"
_World Futures_, 1994,
and a cultural/political model, e.g. J.Z. Namenwirth, "Wheels of
Time and the interdependence of value change in America," _Journal
of Interdisciplinary History_, 1973.
More general references on long waves include:
J. van Duijn, _The Long Wave in Economics_, 1979;
C. Freeman, ed., _Long Waves in the World Economy_, 1984;
Joshua Goldstein, _Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern
Age_, 1988;
Jan Reijnders, _Long Waves in Economic Development_, 1990.
I note that there has been a major revival of interest in
Kondratiev in Russia recently, including a major conference on
the 100th anniversary of his birth in 1992 in Moscow with a
series of papers presented at that time. Stalin had Kondratiev
killed in 1937 for "formalism."
That a lot of the above publications are by Dutch economists or
in Dutch journals such as _De Economist_ reflects the fact that the
originator of the long wave model was not Kondratiev (who published
in 1922 in German originally) but a Dutch economist, J. van Gelderen.
His never-translated-into-English original work was "Springvloed:
Beschouwingen over industrieele ontwikkeling en prijsbeweging,"
_De Nieuwe Tijd_, 1913, 4-6.
Needless to say, if the long wavers are right, we should be
nearing the beginning of a long upswing. We shall see.
Barkley Rosser
Department of Economics
James Madison University
Harrisonburg, VA 22807 USA
