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MUST DEMOCRATS MOVE TO THE RIGHT TO WIN IN '96?
NOT ACCORDING TO A NEW ANALYSIS OF THE 1994 ELECTIONS
Contrary to the perceptions of the public and many political observers, a
recently completed study reveals that it was not because Democratic
incumbents were too liberal that they lost the U.S. House in 1994. Being a
liberal, as opposed to a moderate Democrat, actually enhanced significantly
one's liklihood of election success. It is true, however, that those 15% of
Democratic incumbents who would be considered conservative also fared better
than moderates, though not as well as liberals. Thus, at least for
Democrats, "moderation in all things" is not a wise policy. (A separate
analysis for Republican incumbents revealed a near negligible relationship
between liberal/conservative ideology and election success.) Statistical
analyses had correlated incumbent political ideology (using ratings by the
conservative American Conservative Union and liberal Americans for Democratic
Action) not only with incumbents' wins and losses, but also with their
percentage of votes received.
So why did the Democrats lose in '94? There is no one easy explanation.
Consistent with other studies, our analyses did find that Democratic
incumbents lost in districts in which they were vulnerable or in which
President Clinton had done poorly in '92. Certainly other factors were
important too--regional differences, the economy, and cynicism about
government, to name a few. But the important point is that, while Republican
challengers did make significant gains in 1994, it was not because the
Democrats in office were too liberal. Recent polls showing dissatisfaction
with conservative legislation is consistent with such a conclusion.
Many political observers said that the lesson of '94 was that Democrats must
move to the right to win. While that strategy might work for moderates,
they'd actually be better off, other things being equal, becoming more
liberal. However, since all things are not equal, other factors actually
correlate even more strongly with election success than does political
ideology.
This study was conducted by two professors at Manchester College. Leonard
Williams has published work on political ideology and campaign ads. Neil
Wollman has written on the application of psychological principles to the
political process.
Leonard Williams, Ph.D. Neil Wollman. Ph.D.
History & Political Science Dept. Psychology Dept.
Manchester College Manchester College
N. Manchester, IN 46962 N. Manchester, IN 46962
219-982-5335 219-982-5346
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