Dave Richardson writes:>>What I get from the information below is that the number was right (OK, perhaps there was a positive disturbance since it was so large) but that the Wall Street interpretation was wrong. >>USA Today on page 1B, "Economists Say Fears Overblown," looked at the economy and the job figures and said that "part of last month's payroll jump was a recovery from January, when blizzards caused a loss of 188,000 jobs. Put the two months together, and you get average job growth of 259,000 -- strong, but not explosive" ....<< Because of this kind of thing (and seasonal adjustment, too), it's my general policy to pay little attention to month-by-month fluctuations in _any_ economic statistics. I wish the journalists would follow this policy too, emphasizing (say) three-month or four-month moving averages. Unfortunately, the speculators in the stock and bond markets are a skittish bunch and avoid economic rationality, instead reacting to every little twist and turn of the stats. I think that entirely too much attention is given to the stock market (which has little effect on the real economy except with the stock-price fluctuation is truly huge and the real economy is ready for a fall anyway, as in 1929). Unfortunately, given the current fiscal situation, we can't ignore the bond market: falling bond prices mean rising yields and the government has to pay more interest on its (truly) outstanding debt, making the deficit situation worse and (given the political balance) fueling cut-backs of any government program that's even vaguely worth having. BTW, I believe that the trashing of RJ Burns, SJ, occurred on the _Marxism_ list, not on pen-l. It also was done by someone who (though sometimes quite lucid), sometimes flips out and offends absolutely everyone, left, right, & center. in pen-l solidarity, Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] Econ. Dept., Loyola Marymount Univ. 7900 Loyola Blvd., Los Angeles, CA 90045-8410 USA 310/338-2948 (daytime, during workweek); FAX: 310/338-1950 "It takes a busload of faith to get by." -- Lou Reed.
