BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 2000
RELEASED TODAY: In December 1999, there were 1,509 mass layoff actions by
employers as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits
during the month. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single
establishment, and the number of workers involved totaled 162,381. Both the
number of layoff events and the number of initial claimants for unemployment
insurance were lower than in December 1998. The total of layoff events for
1999 and the total number of initial claimants were lower than in 1998. ...
Business economists see the record expansion continuing through 2001 and are
counting on the Federal Reserve to engineer a slowdown by raising short-term
interest rates two more times this year, the National Association for
Business Economics said. NABE analysts also are more concerned than they
were last year about the stock market's possible impact on the economy, with
20 percent -- double the proportion in last August's survey -- citing a
stock market "bubble" as their foremost concern. NABE released the results
of two surveys: a macro-economic forecast made by a panel of 30 NABE
economists and a policy survey based on responses from a panel of 217 NABE
members. The comments about the stock market came from the policy survey.
The macro survey forecast that real gross domestic product will rise 3.8
percent this year -- compared with 3.2 percent expected when the last
quarterly survey was done in November. Next year, GDP growth will slow to
3.0 percent. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-9; Washington Post, page E1).
The red-hot U.S. economy may have grown at a nearly 7 percent annualized
rate in the last three months of 1999, which would make it one of the
strongest quarters in 13 years. Economists say revised statistics, to be
released by the Commerce Department on Friday, will push fourth-quarter
growth from an initial annual-rate estimate of 5.8 percent to somewhere
between 6.2 percent and 6.8 percent. The figure will rise largely because
of unexpectedly strong consumer buying and bigger-than-forecast spending by
state and local governments on highways and other construction. ... (USA
TODAY, page 1B).
The Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates until the supercharged
pace of domestic demand slows, New York Fed President William McDonough
said. The Fed wants to bring demand and supply back into balance, maintain
the highest possible growth rate, and prevent the gap between U.S. exports
and imports from growing even larger, he said. Despite his warning about
consumer demand, McDonough said inflation was low and will probably even
fall a bit. ... (USA TODAY, page 1B).
Employers' motives for shifting from traditional defined benefit pension
plans to hybrid plans are not as largely cost driven as the media and cash
balance plan critics have portrayed, a Watson Wyatt Worldwide report
concludes. Shifting from traditional defined benefit pension plans to
hybrid plans cut employers' average costs by 10.3 percent on a projected
unit cost basis, according to the report. When the effect of defined
contribution plan enhancements that accompanied some conversions was
weighed, average plan costs were reduced by just 1.4 percent. ... (Daily
Labor Report, page A-5).
DUE OUT TOMORROW: Major Work Stoppages, 1999
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