Considering the fact that the current stage of the US economic boom is
powered by consumer spending and increased indebtedness, I'm surprised that
the New York TIMES waited until page 14 of its Business Section to print
the wire-service story on the second consecutive monthly decline in
consumer confidence. It's not just the volatility of the stock markets and
the high price of oil that are dampening optimism (the NYT's explanation).
It's also has to be rising debt-service costs. This decline should
encourage the slowdown in the US economy that's so desired by Alan G. and
the Fed (sounds like a rock group). But given the decline in long-term
interest rates, I don't expect a recession until 2001. Perhaps at
inauguration time, as Pat Buchanan takes the oath...
BTW, does anyone have any comments of the new IMF-head Horst Köhler's view
that the Fund's role should be expanded (rather than contracted as US
conservatives want)?
Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] & http://liberalarts.lmu.edu/~jdevine
