BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, APRIL 5, 2000
Virtually all indicators of the health of the U.S. labor market showed
vigorous growth last year, as nonfarm payrolls added 2.7 million workers and
employment hit a new record high of 129.6 million in the fourth quarter,
according to a review of major developments across industries and
occupations by BLS economists. The jobless rate fell to a 30-year low and a
record 64.3 percent of the population was working last year. "Almost half
of the employment growth over the year occurred in the higher paying
managerial and professional, specialty occupations," BLS economists Jennifer
Martel and Laura Kelter write in the February issue of BLS' Monthly Labor
Review. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-12; text, page E-1).
The record-breaking U.S. economic expansion should continue, but not at the
rapid pace of the final quarter of 1999, according to the Conference Board's
index of leading indicators. "The biggest risk to the ongoing expansion
continues to be interest-rate increases and the prospect of still more
Federal Reserve Board action," says Ken Goldstein, a Conference Board
economist. "The data now suggests that some sectors are beginning to
respond to Fed tightening, but certainly not enough to prevent the economy
from reaching new records for longevity." ... (Daily Labor Report, page
D-1)_____The decline in leading indicators was the first in the index since
September and the largest since January 1996. It was also deeper than
analysts had expected. ... (Washington Post, page E2)_____The index of
leading economic indicators fell in February for the first time in 5 months
as factory orders for capital goods, building permits, and stocks declined.
The index decreased 0.3 percent in February, after rising 0.2 percent in
January. The drop in the index, a gauge of future growth, comes after three
successive monthly increases, and because of that it does not signal that
the record economic expansion is in jeopardy. ... (New York Times, page C6)
_____The stock market's wild ride yesterday may have been nerve-wracking for
investors, but some economists say a slumping market can be good news for
the U.S. economy -- as long as the descent doesn't get too steep too fast.
For all the breathless fears of a Wall Street crash, mainstream economists
these days are still largely worried that gross domestic product is growing
too rapidly. ... The Conference Board reports that its index of leading
indicators -- a measure designed to predict growth over the next 3 to 6
months -- fell in February by 0.3 percent, the largest 1-month decline in
more than 4 years. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2)
More work stoppages (151) occurred in manufacturing during 1999 than in
other industries, according to the first annual report on collectively
bargained settlements and work stoppages published recently by the Bureau of
National Affairs. The report includes a 10-year statistical table of
negotiated wage increases by both industry and region. ... The report
tracked work stoppages by industry, union, and issues. ... (Daily Labor
Report, page A-12).
Small employers are not steering clear of establishing retirement plans
simply because of red tape and administrative costs, but also because of a
lack of pension knowledge and a perceived lack of interest on the part of
employees, according to a study by the Employee Benefit Research Institute.
... (Daily Labor Report, page A-7).
The "new economy" is turning out to be the economic equivalent of the
collapse of the Soviet Union -- a dramatic shift that might have ushered in
a long-promised sense of security, but instead has brought about a period of
messy change, writes Glenn Kessler in The Washington Post (page E1). The
economy, on one level, keeps surpassing expectations. Unemployment plunges
but inflation doesn't ignite. Wages are rising. Budget deficits have
disappeared and the nation is starting to pay off its debt. But many of the
old rules about the economy and financial markets no longer appear to work,
leaving policymakers at the White House and the Federal Reserve struggling
to find their way. ...
The world economy is likely to grow by about 4 percent in 2000, the
International Monetary Fund chief says. He called current U.S. growth
unsustainable and said there would have to be a balancing of mismatched
expansion rates, likely in the form of a U.S. slowdown and a pickup in Japan
and other economies. ... (Washington Post, page E2).
After years of treading carefully around the issue of why so many countries
stay poor or become poorer, the United Nations put a lot of the blame on bad
government, a message many leaders seeking more aid and debt relief will not
want to hear. ... The report makes "good governance" the top priority in
poverty-fighting by the U.N. development program. Without good governance,
reliance on trickle-down economic development and a host of other strategies
will not work, the report concludes. ... (New York Times, page A11).
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