To answer Doug's question,
Schumpeter distinguished between inventions (technological discoveries/
applications) and innovations (commercially viable applications). Mensch,
among others, elaborates on this and argues that a technology can be around
for some time before it becomes the basis for a long wave. I think it's just
a short step from this to argue that a technology may become an innovation
and be around for years before the innovation becomes a carrier technology.
Also, the logic of Schumpeter's argument does allow for a substantial gestation
time before take-off occurs (in the depression entrepreneurs invest in the
new technology, but dramatic growth and multipliers may be years down the
road and may depend on other contingent conditions being satisfied). This
obviously leads to a sticky empirical issue: how to distinguish between
innovations at the low part of the S curve vs those that comprise the
societal stock of innovations but have not yet formed the basis for growth.
>Posted on 10 Jan 1997 at 11:41:16 by TELEC List Distributor (011802)
>
>[PEN-L:8159] Re: long waves -- and a better question
>
>Date: Fri, 10 Jan 1997 08:36:50 -0800 (PST)
>Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Doug Henwood)
>
>I don't know my Schumpeter very well, or long-wave theory either, but
>computers and related instruments have been around for quite a long time
>now - in use by governments since the 1950s, and by business since the
>1960s. Did earlier transformative technologies - steam engine, railroad,
>car, radio - take so long to have a long-wave upkick?
>
>Greenspan was citing a paper recently - is this what Rakesh meant by:
>
>>Paul David makes in his widely circulated paper
>>comparing the dynamo and the computer
>
>- that asserted that it took decades for the electric motor to have an
>impact on productivity. But what about the other world-transforming
>gadgets? Did they operate with a delay of 30 or 40 years?
>
>Doug
>
>--
>
>Doug Henwood
>Left Business Observer
>250 W 85 St
>New York NY 10024-3217
>USA
>+1-212-874-4020 voice
>+1-212-874-3137 fax
>email: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>web: <http://www.panix.com/~dhenwood/LBO_home.html>
Marsh Feldman Phone: 401/874-5953
Community Planning, 204 Rodman Hall FAX: 401/874-5511
The University of Rhode Island Internet: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Kingston, RI 02881-0815
