> BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, APRIL 1, 1997 > > RELEASED TODAY: Unemployment rates for most states showed little > movement in February, as 37 states recorded shifts of 0.3 percentage > point or less from January. The national jobless rate was essentially > unchanged at 5.3 percent. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 46 > states and the District of Columbia in February .... > > Personal income jumped 0.9 percent in February, the Commerce > Department reports, prompting fears of accelerating inflation and > causing the stock market to tumble. Wages and salaries rose 1.3 > percent in February. The February increase in personal income > followed an upwardly revised 0.4 percent advance in January and helped > boost the savings rate from 5.1 percent to 5.5 percent. Wages and > salaries in private industry rose a robust 1.5 percent in February, > while manufacturing salaries rose only 0.4 percent in the month > ....(Daily Labor Report, page D-3; Washington Post, page C2; New York > Times, page D6; Wall Street Journal, page A2). > Seasonal adjustment factors are overstating the current pace of > economic growth, and analysts can expect some data "payback" over the > next three-to-six months, particularly in data series such as > employment, retail sales, and housing. According to economists > contacted by the Bureau of National Affairs, data released during the > winter months are especially suspicious because volatile weather > patterns can "pollute" other statistics going forward. But > technological innovations, such as electronic filing of tax returns, > and timing issues also can affect seasonal adjustment factors and > distort economic data, they add ....And while that is likely to have > only a small-to-limited effect on policy-making, it can have a fairly > large impact on financial markets and economic forecasting ....A case > in point is the monthly employment report. In February, nonfarm > payroll jobs advanced a seasonally adjusted 339,000, with construction > employment -- which is particularly vulnerable to weather conditions > -- jumping a heady 109,000 during the month. And in January, jobs > were up by 247,000. But a year ago, the blizzard that blanketed the > East Coast led to a decline in nonfarm payroll jobs in January 1996 > and led to a post-blizzard boom that pushed employment up by more than > 500,000 the following month. And seasonal adjustment factors, which > are calculated by BLS for employment-related data, are calculated as > an average of estimated seasonal patterns for the most recent year. > "For the current year factors, the last three years have the most > impact," Bob McIntire, chief of the division of data development and > publications at BLS, explained ....For March, private economists said > they expect a fairly substantial "payback" from February's robust > employment gains. Smith Barney Inc. forecasts a 125,000 gain in > nonfarm payroll employment for the month, while economists polled by > Macroeconomic Advisers expect a 186,000 increase in jobs for March > ....(Daily Labor Report, page D-1). > > With some members of the baby-boom generation now into their 40s and > 50s, the overall workforce is getting older, giving companies a host > of issues to consider, including how to manage a large population of > mature employees and how to avoid what some see as the next major > employment litigation boom -- age discrimination lawsuits ....The most > recent BLS figures show employees' median age was 37.6 in 1994, up > from 34.6 in 1980, and the agency projects the median age will reach > 40.6 by 2005 ....(Daily Labor Report, page C-1). > > On Sunday's Meet the Press, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin declined > to predict whether the issue of adjusting the CPI would be resolved in > the next year and said the administration has not yet decided what > action to take in that regard ....(Daily Labor Report, page A-6). > > "Job displacement is entering the debate over welfare reform," says > Louis Uchitelle in a page A1 story in the New York Times. "Across the > country, thousands on welfare are going to work, but often not at new > jobs created for them ....Frequently they do work once done by regular > employees ....Under the new Federal law and a proliferation of state > laws, welfare officials are required to send people on aid out to > jobs, even to jobs that do not pay during indefinite training > periods." Uchitelle says, "Many others on welfare compete > successfully for low-wage jobs that might otherwise have gone to the > working poor not on welfare, nearly 30 percent of the work force. And > although they are coming off welfare, many job applicants have the > advantage of a year or more of child-care subsidies and transportation > allowances ...." He says, "Regardless of who gets the job, wages are > held down, economists say, contributing to the income inequality that > is such a national issue today. With the American economy thriving and > unemployment low, employers frequently find themselves scrambling to > find enough entry-level workers. Normally they raise wages to lure > people who would not otherwise be willing to take these jobs. But > with the injection of so many welfare recipients as workers, the wage > pressure is dulled ...." > > The short questionnaire for the year 2000 census -- the one that most > U.S. households will receive -- will be the briefest one this century, > the agency announced yesterday. It will include seven questions, down > from 12 in the 1990 census. Under pressure from Congress to slim > down, the Census Bureau also will drop five subjects from the longer > questionnaire that about 20 percent of U.S. households will receive. > No longer will people be asked the year they last worked, their home's > water source and type of sewage system, whether they live in a > condominium, and -- if female -- how many children they have had > ....(Washington Post, page A15; New York Times, page A21). > > An article on the farm economy in the Wall Street Journal (page A2) > says that Donald Ratajczak, director of the economic-forecasting > center at Georgia State University in Atlanta, expects prices in > grocery stores to climb just 3.5 percent this year compared with 4.9 > percent during 1996, when grain shortages caused retail prices of > everything from milk to pork to jump .... > > Edward Yardeni, chief economist at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, writing a > "Viewpoint" column in the New York Times (March 30, page F12), quotes > from the June 1996 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, saying that "a > startling 80 percent of all jobs created since 1989 were in > occupations for which the median weekly earnings for wage and salary > workers were above the 1993 median for all such workers". > >
