On Mon, 5 May 1997, James Devine wrote: > ....the point is that the US economy has changed and is changing, > seemingly at an accelerated pace (whereas you had something like that the > role of exports was stable). My pocket almanac figures tell a different story (sorry, they don't have GDP before 1980 so I have to use GNP -- they're very close): Year X/GNP M/GNP 1960 3.8% 2.9% 1970 4.2 4.0 1980 8.0 8.9 1990 7.0 8.8 1995 8.0 10.2 Maybe I'm missing something, but I see a huge jump in the 1970s and a bit of flailing around since with small upward drift. > Further, simply the fact that the US has a large economy means that it will > have a relatively low openness index forever (as long as transportation > costs are positive rather than zero). After all, in some places in the > Netherlands, if they buy bread, it counts as an "Import" since it comes > from Belgium or Germany or France. Whereas if someone in Illinois buys > something from Missouri (across the Mississippi River) it does not count > that way. Granted, and well put. But I think we may see trade growth level off as manufacturing continues to decline. Just a wild prediction..... Cheers, Tavis
