Doug -
Ask Stephanie Schmidt if she has ever been laid off or been in a tenuous
job situation. If yes, did it make her anxious? If no, was it because
a) Her superior education and skills make her marketable.
b) She has another gig to bridge the gap (I've heard a few
people claim multiple part time jobs are a form of security
against one job falling through.)
c) She has a partner who has a good job (or at least not likely
to fall through at the same time as hers).
d) She has savings adequate to any contingency.
Peter Capelli in Rethinking Work (British Journal of Industrial Relations
v 33, #4 1995) has (among other things) a brief lit review of studies on
job security and tenure. He seems to agree that the downsizing of the
1990s hit hard at white collar white men who had come to expect security
and upward mobility, but there is also increasing instability for the
poorly educated. However, women are less likely to leave jobs to get
married or have kids than once upon a time. In a footnote he points out
that tenure combines quits and involuntary separations which are, ceteris
paribus, inversely related - so that average tenure tends toward
stability. Given that, he weighs in on the side that security and tenure
are weakening.
So do I - based on much up-close-and-personal anecdotal evidence.
Insecurity can become a way of life with very different sets of short and
long term expectations (and anxieties). If things look ok for a while,
then it's ok to take the kids on vacation or get that great looking
sweater. That doesn't mean the kids will get to go to college or that a
comfortable retirement is assured - or that saving a few bucks now by
foregoing present pleasures will make that much difference if everything
goes to hell in the future. I doubt Stephanie would want to walk a mile in
my shoes.
Do you think the current low rate of unemployment will last? Actually,
the more interesting question is the one you mentioned briefly recently -
is persistent growth sustainable - economically or ecologically? Is the
American Dream what we really want?
---------Laurie
