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BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, OCTOBER 27, 1997
BLS will release in the third or fourth week of November labor force
projections for 1996-2006. BLS Associate Commissioner Neal H. Rosenthal
says the agency has learned from previous projections that it tends to
be too conservative in its estimates of labor force trends ....In
analyzing its projections for 1984-95, BLS tended to be accurate about
trends in labor force growth, demographic participation, and
occupational employment, but underestimated the size of the changes,
according to articles in the Monthly Labor Review ....Broad assumptions,
like the strength of the world economy, are subject to great
uncertainty, Rosenthal said in the article "Evaluating the 1995 BLS
Projections" ....The projection of the total civilian labor force was
3.1 million lower than the actual 1995 labor force of 132.3 million, an
error of 2.8 percent, wrote Howard N. Fullerton Jr. in the same article
.....Arthur Andreassen found that BLS correctly described most broad
industry trends over the 1984-95 period ....Carolyn M. Veneri found that
occupational employment projections captured most of the trends over the
1984-95 period ....The fastest growing occupation groups had the largest
projection errors, she said ....(Daily Labor Report, page A-1).
Although fatal accident rates have decreased in dangerous occupations
such as mining and construction, mortality rates among agricultural
workers remain consistently high - at least twice that of workers in
other industrialized sectors, an International Labor Office official
says ....(Daily Labor Report, page A-4).
A national poll of working people has found that a majority expect to
move on to another job within the next five years, even though most
workers are satisfied where they are. The poll, made public by Louis
Harris & Associates, said 53 percent of workers expected to leave their
positions voluntarily within five years, and 17 percent of workers
considered it likely that they would be dismissed or laid off. Though
three-quarters of workers deemed their jobs interesting, half gave their
pay and retirement benefits negative ratings ....The sample of 714
workers was part of a Harris poll of 1,011 adults from Sept. 10 to 15
.....(New York Times, page A20).
The minimum-wage increase has turned into one of the nonevents of 1997,
thanks mostly to the economy's continuing strength, says a Wall Street
Journal article (page A1). Low-wage Americans - nearly 10 million
workers, by some estimates - got a raise. But amid the current
prosperity, hardly anybody noticed ....The big issues now are, in a
sense, the collateral damage of the economic boom: intensified
competition, a scarcity of good workers, high staff turnover, and job
burnout ....
The U.S. economy is expanding at better than a 3 percent clip, says "The
Outlook" column of The Wall Street Journal (page A1), written by David
Wessel. The pool of workers sitting on the sidelines is evaporating.
Unions finally are showing signs of life. Wage and benefit costs may be
turning up. Boeing Co. can't make planes fast enough. The nation's
railroads can't make timely deliveries. Business executives appear
dangerously euphoric and, at least until last week, so did stock-market
investors. What more will it take for Alan Greenspan to pull the
interest rate trigger? A lot, apparently, says Wessel ....The column is
illustrated with a chart entitled "Running Low on Workers?" which shows
those officially unemployed plus those who say they want to work as a
percentage of the work force, 1970 to the present. BLS is given as the
source ....The column concludes by saying, "With so little inflation to
begin with and so much uncertainty, the case for a preemptive strike
against inflation is weak. The conventional justification for raising
rates, which would have justified a move long before now, won't suffice.
Something significant in the economic environment has to change before
Mr. Greenspan can justify raising interest rates now."
The Wall Street Journal's "Tracking the Economy" feature (page A8) shows
the technical data consensus forecast for the Employment Cost Index for
the third quarter, to be released tomorrow, as 0.8 percent, identical to
the previous quarter's actual raise.
Despite some problems, employees with family needs choose to share
duties to increase flexibility, says The Washington Post (Oct. 26, page
H4) ....According to a 1996 survey by Hewitt Associates of 718 large
corporations, 258 offered job sharing, compared with 161 five years ago
.....Despite the potential pitfalls, job sharing can work, but it depends
entirely on the personalities and work ethics of the two people
involved. In addition to concerns about efficiency, employers generally
are wary of the cost of paying extra benefits ....Thus, job sharing is
not widely offered, even among the corporations that have it as an
option ....
DUE OUT TOMORROW: Employment Cost Index - September 1997
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