For all you scandal connoisseurs out there, a follow-up to last week's comment from David Moore of Gallup - the full press release. Doug ---- >GALLUP NEWS SERVICE > >January 31, 1998 -- For immediate release > >REPUBLICANS, INDEPENDENTS BOOST CLINTON'S APPROVAL TO RECORD HIGH > >By David W. Moore > >PRINCETON, N.J. -- In the aftermath of his State of the Union address >last Tuesday evening, President Clinton's job approval jumped eight >percentage points, reaching the highest level in Clinton's presidency. >Significant increases were also recorded in the President's personal >favorability rating, and in the level of confidence people have in >Clinton to carry out his duties as president. Contrary to what might be >expected, these increases were not due to Democrats rallying around the >President, but to Republicans and independents giving the President >unusually high ratings. Democrats continued to be the source of >Clinton's greatest support, but their support was unchanged from what >they expressed over the previous weekend. > > These results suggest that the Democrats had already reached a >"saturation" level of support, with about nine of 10 giving the >president high marks. By contrast, independents and Republicans, who >initially gave Clinton much lower ratings than Democrats, seemed to be >influenced by the speech -- and perhaps also by the White House strategy >of criticizing independent counsel Kenneth Starr and the news media -- >to a more positive view of the President. > > According to the Gallup poll conducted the night after the >State-of-the Union address, 67% of the public approved of the way >Clinton was handling his job as president, compared with 59% who >approved the previous weekend. But the increase was found only among >Republicans and independents. Among Democrats, 88% approved of the >president, the highest among the three partisan groups, but no different >from the earlier poll. Among independents, 65% approved -- up 12 points, >and among Republicans, 43% approved -- also 12 points higher than the >weekend numbers. > > A similar pattern was found on other measures of Clinton >support. Last weekend, 55% gave the president a favorable rating, but >the day after the State-of-the-Union address, that number surged to 63% >-- an eight-point increase. Among Democrats, however, the increase was >just one point (to 86%), compared with a four-point increase among >Republicans (to 29%) and a 15-point jump among independents (to 65%). > >Republicans Show Largest Increase in Confidence > > Clinton's greatest improvement came in the number of Americans >who have confidence in his ability to carry out his duties as president. >Over the weekend, 63% of the public said they were either "very" or >"somewhat" confident, compared with 36% who said they were either "not >too" or "not at all" confident. After Clinton's address to the nation, >Americans expressed confidence by a margin of 76% to 22% -- a jump in >confidence of 13 percentage points overall, with the number expressing >little confidence declining by 14 points. > > Again, the increased ratings did not come primarily from >Democrats, but from Republicans and independents. Democrats continue to >express the greatest confidence, with 93% in the latest poll and 88% in >the weekend poll, but that 5-point increase is small by comparison with >the increases recorded among the other two partisan groups. Republicans >showed a jump in favorability toward Clinton of 19 percentage points, >from 36% over the weekend to 55% after Clinton's speech. Similarly, >independents went from 61% to 75% favorable, up 14 percentage points. > > >SURVEY METHODOLOGY > > The results reported here are based on three Gallup polls. The >first includes telephone interviews with a randomly selected national >sample of 903 adults, conducted January 23-24, 1998. The second >includes telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample >of 864 adults, conducted January 25-26, 1998. The two surveys were >aggregated to a total sample of 1,767 respondents. For results based on >a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the >error attributable to sampling and other random effects could be plus or >minus 3 percentage points. The third survey, which provides the current >results, includes telephone interviews with a randomly selected national >sample of 622, conducted January 28, 1998. For results based on a >sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the >error attributable to sampling and other random effects could be plus or >minus 4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question >wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce >error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Polls >conducted entirely in one evening, such as this one, are subject to >additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days. > >TABLE 1. >Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job >as president? >...............................................No.....' >.......................Approve...Disapprove....Opinion..' >..........................%..........%............%.....' >January 23-26............59.........36............5....' >Republicans..............31.........65............4....' >Independents.............53.........39............8....' >Democrats ...............88.........11............1...' > >January 28...............67.........28............5...' >Republicans..............43.........54............3....' >Independents.............65.........27............8....' >Democrats ...............88..........9............3...' >TABLE 2. >Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. >As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable >opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her. >(Bill Clinton) > >.................................Unfavor-......No.....' >.......................Favorable...able........Opinion..' >..........................%..........%............%.....' >January 23-26............55.........41............4....' >Republicans..............25.........71............4....' >Independents.............50.........45............5....' >Democrats ...............85.........12............3...' > >January 28...............63.........32............5...' >Republicans..............29.........65............6....' >Independents.............65.........31............4....' >Democrats ...............86..........9............5...' > > >TABLE 3. >How confident are you in Bill Clinton's abilities to carry out his >duties as president -- > >.......................Very/......Not too/......No.....' >.......................Somewhat...Not at all...........' >.......................Confident..Confident.....Opinion.' >..........................%..........%............%.....' >January 23-26............63.........36............1....' >Republicans..............36.........62............2....' >Independents.............61.........37............2....' >Democrats ...............88.........11............1...' > >January 28...............76.........22............2...' >Republicans..............55.........42............3....' >Independents.............75.........22............2....' >Democrats ...............93..........6............1...'
