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BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 1997
RELEASED TODAY: As the national unemployment rate
decreased from 5.4 percent in 1996 to 4.9 percent in 1997, rates also
fell in three-fourths of the states. All four of the nation's regions
and eight of the nine divisions experienced jobless rate declines on an
annual average basis as well =85. =20
New claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance totaled
a seasonally adjusted 320,000 for the week ended Feb. 21. This is a
rise of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 310,000, the
Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration Reports
=85.(Daily Labor Report page D-3; Washington Post, page G2; Wall =
Street
Journal, page A2).
The Conference Board's help-wanted advertising index rose a point in
January, to 89, with the largest increases in newspaper ads in
Midwestern cities such as Chicago and Cleveland =85.(Daily Report, page
A-2).
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose 0.7 percent in January =
on
the strength of electronic equipment growth, the Census Bureau reports
=85.(Daily Labor Report, page D-1; New York Times, page C6; Wall Street
Journal, page A2).
Manufacturing executives expect business to slow through April, but
construction executives, encouraged by low interest rates, are very
bullish, according to Dun & Bradstreet Corp.'s latest monthly survey
=85.(Wall Street Journal, page A2). =20
Evidence is mounting that productivity growth is returning to the level
of the golden 1950s and 1960s. Recent government data show =
productivity
growing about 2 percent for the past two years, twice the rate of the
past two decades. If sustained, the long-term, U.S. noninflationary
growth rate would be closer to 3 =BD percent than 2 =BD percent, with =
all
that implies for wages, profits, and unemployment =85.On the same day =
the
BLS released its numbers, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index and Dow
Jones industrial average hit record highs. The 2 percent rise in
productivity in the fourth quarter of 1997 was a stunning surprise =
=85.But
the more important move was the quiet revision in the same BLS report =
of
the 1996 productivity growth figure to 1.9 percent, from 1.3 percent
=85.Based on fresh data, the BLS has concluded that its original =
numbers
overstated the number of hours actually worked by employees =85.The new
data on productivity strengthen the New Economy argument. So keep an
eye on the productivity numbers in the months ahead, especially if the
economy slows =85.(Business Week, Feb. 23, page 138).
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