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BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, APRIL 1, 1998
RELEASED TODAY: In February, 221 metropolitan areas recorded
unemployment rates below the U.S. average (5.0 percent, not seasonally
adjusted), while 104 areas had higher rates. The 20 metropolitan areas
with the lowest unemployment rates were in the Midwest and South -
regions with record low jobless rates. Seventeen of the 20 areas with
the highest rates were in California or along the Mexican border in
other states ....
The upward drift in wage rates should continue as labor markets tighten
further, economists contacted by the Bureau of National Affairs predict.
Although welcome news for wage earners, economists are increasingly
voicing concern that acceleration in pay could threaten the economic
expansion in the long run. None are predicting a near-term recession,
but they are beginning to say that these imbalances should be watched
closely ....(Daily Labor Report, page D-1).
Employers generally value older workers as reliable, flexible,
competent, and healthy, according to a National Council on the Aging
survey of 240 U.S. employers ....However, the study revealed some
barriers to employing older people. Some 61 percent of employers do not
know where to find older workers, and 43 percent have concerns about
training them ....(Daily Labor Report, page A-5).
Consumer confidence fell by 3.1 points to 143.3 percent of its 1985 base
in March, the Conference Board reports ....Some 44.9 percent of
respondents said jobs were plentiful in March, up from 42.8 percent in
February and 33.1 percent a year ago. The percent finding jobs more
plentiful has increased rather consistently throughout the past year
.....(Daily Labor Report, page A-3)_____Consumer confidence fell, but
only slightly from a level that was the highest in 29 years ....(New
York Times, page D8)_____Consumers remain upbeat about economic
conditions, but view the future with some uncertainty ....(Wall Street
Journal, page A2).
Strong as the U.S. economy is, the outlook is exceptionally murky - so
Federal Reserve officials kept a key interest rate steady at a
policymaking session, and analysts can't agree on what the central bank
will do next ....(Washington Post, page C11)_____The Fed, which has been
holding short-term interest rates steady for a year now, left rates
unchanged again yesterday, despite the economy's remarkable might. With
the inflation rate actually falling, the Fed effectively has lifted
inflation-adjusted, or real, short-term interest rates ....(Wall Street
Journal, page A2; New York Times, page D8).
An analysis of Department of Commerce data by Dartmouth College
economist Matthew J. Slaughter shows that the domestic share of
employment among U.S.-based multinationals has held steady at around 74
percent for 20 years ....Despite suspicion that multinationals seek
mainly low-wage workers in less-developed countries, nearly two-thirds
of the overseas employees were in developed countries. Some 67 percent
of total sales by foreign affiliates remained within the host country,
and only 10 percent returned to the United States. (The rest went to
third countries.) The pattern indicates that sales, not wages, have
been the principal motivation for establishing foreign affiliates
(Business Week, April 6, page 30).
Working at home for pay has turned out to be one of the hottest
employment trends of the 1990s. Between 1991 and 1997, the number of
wage and salary workers who received pay for work at home nearly
doubled, from 1.9 million to 3.6 million, BLS announced ....Bureau
economist William G. Deming speculated that an increase in corporate
telecommuting programs may explain much of the increase. One hint that
may be true is that there was not a corresponding increase in unpaid
work done at home, Indeed, there was a decrease in the number of wage
and salary workers who do work at home for which they are not paid
.....(Business Week, April 6, page 30).
The S&P median forecast expects that nonfarm payrolls rose by 235,000 in
March, on top of February's huge 310,000 gain. The jobless rate likely
remained at 4.6 percent (Business Week, April 6, page 147).
Wages for the lowest-paid workers in the U.S. rose 1.6 percent in 1997,
nearly twice as fast as wages for the best-paid. That's the biggest
increase in inflation-adjusted pay since the government started
collecting data in 1979. Economic growth is benefiting workers on the
bottom half more than those on the top half ....Whatever downward
pressures the global economy is putting on wages, fast economic growth
(3.8 percent last year) and labor scarcity are more than compensating
for it. This is particularly good news for unskilled young people
entering the job market. The jobless rate for high school dropouts is
down from nearly 12 percent in 1992, to 7 percent ....(Business Week
editorial, April 5, page 130).
In a sign of economic strength, the National Association of Purchasing
Management reported that its monthly index of manufacturing activity in
the Chicago region unexpectedly rose ....(New York Times, page D8).
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