On Thu, 27 Aug 1998, valis wrote: > Anyone care to don a wizard's hat and predict the consequences > at the ballot box on September 27th? Really a tricky issue. > Even trickier is guessing what difference would be made > by having the SPD in power. Let's see, where's my magic wand... oh, there it is, next to the Burger Kind tiara. (Ahem). Now, as to the German elections -- the net result, or so says this particular radical mammal, will be a mighty gnashing of the mediatic teeth, much unhappiness in the executive offices of Deutsche Bank, and finally, absolutely no effect on the outcome whatsoever. The SPD and Schroeder have this sewn up. Practically every poll ever taken shows that the German electorate thinks long and hard and makes up its mind in the year before the election, and that's that. So sind die Deutsche. The Germans are thoroughly fed up with Kohl, the CDU's austerity, and with 11% unemployment, and whereas the East voted for the Right in 1994, expecting the economy would blossom, nowadays the pendulum has swung Left. Expect a Red-Green Government this October, plus a spate of PDS-SPD state governments in the East. Mostly, this'll mean more dough for workers and the EU, which is a good thing, but it'll take sustained politicking by the Greens and their Left allies to push the SPD to do more. I expect full citizenship rights to be granted to immigrants, just like other European countries, plus more funding for higher education, and some small increase in the tax bite on the rich. Nothing too huge, basically a kind of Jospinism a l'allemand. Of course, the class struggle will grind on, only with the workingclass in a more favorable position -- IG Metall has been growling about the need for major real wage increases for some time now (and those people don't make policy threats lightly), the students went on strike last year, heck, people in general are pissed and not going to take this neoliberal crap anymore. -- Dennis
