Dear Pen-l'rs, The coincidence could not be more striking! Only yesterday I posted a message that suggested there is likely to be a return to power by the former Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdyn. He is popular among the Russian bureaucrats/businessmen, is based in Russia's raw materials sector (Russia's current and future economic base as a component to the expanded reproduction of capital on a global scale), and is a star of the conservative industrialists, whose strategies will most likely differ from those of the World Bank and the IMF in the short run, but whose possible ability to integrate the Russian economy (via the displacement of class struggle through Soviet-style paternalistic labour-management relations) into the capitalist world market on terms more or less favourable to the Russian ruling class might materialise in the near future (provided the working class settle for a paternalistic compromise with the new leaders). This might also allow for the formation of a (capitalist?) state that is actually less impotent than Yeltsin's current sinking ship. I guess at this point all we can do is watch and hope the workers use the current situation to their advantage (whatever this means from their point of view). In solidarity, Greg. ****** #1 Yeltsin Fires PM, Entire Government Aujgust 23, 1998 By MITCHELL LANDSBERG MOSCOW (AP) -- Boris Yeltsin fired Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko and the rest of his government on Sunday and said he was reappointing former Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin. The surprise announcement came as Kiriyenko and the government were struggling to overcome one of Russia's worst economic crises since the Soviet collapse. The Russian president had fired Chernomyrdin and appointed the 35-year-old Kiriyenko in March, saying Russia needed new ideas and fresh leadership. Kiriyenko had barely been approved by parliament when Russia's economy went into a tailspin, a victim of plunging world oil prices and the Asian economic crisis. Si*nce then, the young prime minister had been waging a losing battle to shore up the economy, defend the national currency and push reform measures through a hostile parliament dominated by communists and their allies. Chernomyrdin, a Soviet-style bureaucrat who once headed the national gas monopoly, Gazprom, has busied himself since being fired by laying the groundwork for a presidential campaign in 2000. Few political analysts think Chernomyrdin -- a relatively bland and conservative figure strongly associated with an unpopular administration -- could win, although he could probably count on some support from the business and banking establishment. Kiriyenko had been busy holding meetings Sunday to work out measures to save Russia's banking system from default. Yeltsin delivered the news in a terse announcement from his press service. He did not give any reason for the shift, but he has been under increasing pressure from parliament to replace the government. The lower house of parliament, the State Duma, called Friday for Yeltsin's resignation, and all factions in parliament had also demanded that Kiriyenko step down or be fired. ``We can't afford the luxury of being a popular government,'' Kiriyenko told the Duma on Friday as he outlined the government's new austerity package. His comments drew a chorus of boos and jeers. ****** #2 Russia's Chernomyrdin again proves unsinkable By Oleg Shchedrov MOSCOW, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Viktor Chernomyrdin again proved his reputation of being ``unsinkable'' on Sunday when President Boris Yeltsin put him back in charge of Russia's government, exactly five months after sacking him as prime minister. Yeltsin removed Sergei Kiriyenko, who had in effect devalued the rouble and defaulted on some Russian debt as prime minister, and named Chernomyrdin, 60, as acting premier. ``We have no government today,'' Chernomyrdin said last week as he held a flurry of secret consultations with other political leaders. ``Measures that should be taken are not being taken or even proposed. All that is being proposed is all muddled. Nothing is being done.'' In 1992 Yeltsin made Chernomyrdin his prime minister to replace the reformist Yegor Gaidar, launching the stocky, low-profile former chief of the powerful Gazprom natural gas monopoly into high-profile public politics. Chernomyrdin loyally stood by Yeltsin through political and economic turmoil, outlasting many of his allies and foes. ``Loyalty to Yeltsin is his shield and his insurance,'' one Kremlin official said about Chernomyrdin's ability to survive. In November 1996, Yeltsin handed Chernomyrdin the reins of power for one day when he had heart surgery in a sign of trust in the prime minister. Loyalty to Yeltsin helped Chernomyrdin survive several major government reshuffles, including after a brief but dramatic crash in the rouble's value in October 1994 which forced out several cabinet colleagues. Chernomyrdin's time seemed to be running out in March 1997 when Yeltsin named young reformers Boris Nemtsov and Anatoly Chubais as first deputy prime ministers to oversee reforms. But Chernomyrdin bore the humiliation calmy and waited. By early 1998, Chernomyrdin was again as powerful as ever. When Russia's economy started to wobble in late 1997 under the pressure of a global crisis sparked by turmoil in Asian financial markets, Chernomyrdin again rode the storm. But his traditional unsinkability seemed to have failed him a few months later. On March 23 Yeltsin sacked him without explanation, replacing him with Kiriyenko. Yeltsin later said the sacking was due to Chernomyrdin's lack of reformist stamina. But some Kremlin sources said the growing political weight of the premier was the real reason. Yeltsin, they said, feared Chernomyrdin had become too powerful. Chernomyrdin, abandoned by the Kremlin chief, announced plans to run for president in 2000, revealing an ambition he had long denied he harboured. Many commentators predicted that Chernomyrdin, who has little charisma and often mumbles when speaking in public, had almost no chance of winnming an election without the support of the Kremlin. Some sentenced him to political oblivion. Chernomyrdin announced plans to run for a place in the lower house of parliament to occupy him until 2000, representing the centrist party Our Home is Russia movement which he heads. It has about 10 percent of seats in the lower house. By calling back Chernomyrdin, Yeltsin has acknowledged the usefulness of his veteran ally, who is widely expected to remain as permanent prime minister and is likely to seek more independence than Kiriyenko had. Ekho Moskvy radio station quoted sources in Chernomyrdin's entourage as saying the condition for his comeback was full control over hiring and firing ministers. It said he also wanted Yeltsin to have no involvement in day-to-day management of the government. The report could not immediately be confirmed. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
