Jim D wrote: > (I find belief in "long waves" to be exactly that, a faith, an > assumption.) I think there are a number of problems with the long wave hypothesis that I haven't seen answered satisfactorily. Firstly, there is the question of sample size. How many "long waves" have there been? Not so many historically, I think, to make any conclusions about regularity or timing. Then, there is the question of causal mechanisms. Some like Mandel have pointed to the turnover of constant fixed capital and the pace of technological change, but others like Trotsky noted that changes in the long waves tended to occur during periods of major social and political change (1789, 1848, 1871, etc.). So, I think there is a problem of reconciling the basic causes of the waves with historically contingent events. Oops ... did I stir up something? Jerry
