Has anyone noticed the proliferation of "offical pronouncements" of the end of the business cycle? DRI and WEFA have both noted that the "steady growth" of the 1980s and 1990s reflects a new "golden era" of the 3-3-3 rule: 3% inflation, 3% growth, 3pm golf tee-off! In the latest Barron's (1/27/97) Gene Epstein (OK Doug, so what if the guy has to fill his weekly comments with quotes, he's trying) summarizes a report by two Golman Sachs economists. Basically, they argue that inventory cycles are a thing of the past because of "just in time" inventory, capital, and WORKERS! Secondly, the end of oligopolies has brought about lower inflation because firms will not hoard labor when labor markets "get tight." Companies now take precautions in their management of labor by "imposing longer workweeks and hiring temporary workers." Other factors include global competition and deregulation that have all helped to improve aggregate productivity and growth. I'm surprised that Gene bought this line - given his New Deal proclivities - but alas maybe he's seen the light. On a totally unrelated matter: can anyone offer a reading or two on the "Economics of Mental Health." I am teaching an introductory course in economics with a number of students who are getting BA's in social work. They have a good sense of the horrible transformation of the mental health care system (e.g. using cheaper medications for their clients while raising the ratio of patients/staff. Any well-written/intro-level pieces who be appreciated. Jason H
