forwarded by Michael Hoover > Florida fares poorly in global warming study > > By DAVID FLESHLER [Ft. Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel] Staff Writer > Web-posted: 11:03 p.m. June 12, 2000 > > South Florida would suffer more than most other parts of the United > States if global temperatures continue to rise, according to the first > extensive federal study of the subject. > > In a region-by-region assessment of the possible effects of global > warming, the federal government found that impact would vary widely. > Northern areas of the United States, for example, may enjoy milder > winters, longer growing seasons and bigger harvests. But South > Florida's future could be worse, according to the report. > > "The South Florida region is vulnerable to multiple climate-change > stresses, as sea-level rise, changes in the frequency of freezing > events, hurricanes, droughts and associated fire, sea surface > temperatures and many others all affect the full diversity of > ecosystems," the report states, in a section titled "South Florida Case > Study." > > The report was ordered by Congress in 1990 and performed by > several federal agencies working with dozens of outside scientists. It > was based on computer projections of hotter climates over the next > 100 years. A draft of the report was published Monday on the Internet > at www.nacc.usgcrp.gov > > Global temperatures have risen about 1 degree in the past century. > Many scientists believe temperatures will continue to rise, as humans > burn coal, gasoline and other fuels. These fuels produce carbon > dioxide and other "greenhouse gases" that are suspected of trapping > the sun's heat within the atmosphere. > > In the past 100 years, as the temperature climbed, sea levels have > risen 4 to 8 inches. The report projects that they will rise 5 to 40 > inches more by the year 2100. > > A rise in the sea levels would not flood Miami Beach or Fort > Lauderdale, said Tom Karl, director of the Climate Data Center of the > National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and co-chairman of > the committee that wrote the report. These cities can continue to > build sea walls and renourish beaches to protect their waterfront > hotels and restaurants, even though it would be expensive, he said. > > More likely are other problems: A higher sea level would drown > mangrove forests that protect and nurture young marine life. It would > allow saltwater to intrude more deeply into the groundwater, killing > coastal forests and threatening wells. It would lead to more-powerful > storm surges during hurricanes. > > But not all of the report's authors believe the oceans will rise that > far. > > "I don't think that the sea level is going to rise to the level that > some of the zealots are projecting," said Jim O'Brien, a meteorologist > at Florida State University who helped write the section on the > Southeastern United States. "If your grandkid born today inherits > some property in the Keys, it's still going to be there." > > And there may be some good news for Florida in the report. Higher > temperatures could bring more frequent occurrences of El Nino, a > warming over the Pacific Ocean that could reduce the number of > hurricanes that menace the state. > > "All the predictions say we should have more El Ninos," O'Brien > said. "If we have more El Ninos, we kill hurricanes in the Atlantic. The > bad news is that the planet has to have hurricanes, so the poor > Japanese and Filipinos will have more typhoons." > > Not all the report's authors believe that global warming will mean > fewer hurricanes. And some believe the hurricanes that do form will > bring more destruction, due to heavier rains and stronger storm > surges. > > "Whether there are more storms or fewer storms is just too difficult > to project," Karl said. "The rainfall associated with those storms is > likely to be significantly greater than what we see now." > > South Florida's temperatures would rise less than most other parts > of the country. The report projects that summer temperatures in the > Southeastern United States will go up by 2.3 to 5 degrees by the year > 2030. But the area's summer heat index, a combination of > temperature and humidity, would rise by 8 to 15 degrees, making life > in the outdoors more difficult during the hot season, according to the > report. Cities would be hotter, and the increased heat could worsen > smog. > > While human creations, such as farms and cities, will likely be able > to handle hotter climates, natural ecosystems may be more > vulnerable, according to the report. Coral reefs are likely to weaken. > The Everglades, an extremely sensitive ecosystem, could suffer > additional stress if higher temperatures alter rain patterns, according > to the report. > > David Fleshler can be reached at [EMAIL PROTECTED] or > 954-356-4535.